System Selections 26/12/2008 (Results) and 28-30/12/2008

A good Boxing Day for the system with healthy profits being registered and hopfully more of the same for the next few days...

A system performance update will be posted as soon as this batch of selections is settled.. Until then good luck!

System Selections 26/12/2008

Merry Christmas to everyone! And of course, Boxing Day is a very big day on the English fooball calendar, so here are the system's picks for today:

Good luck to anyone following these picks!

System Selections 19-22/12/2008 (Results)

A profitable weekend for the system which is most welcome right before Christmas. The Premier League picks seem to be performing pretty well, while League One and Two are currently running on losses. Hopefully, all leagues will return a profit by May!

Next system update will probably be on the 26th so I'd like to wish Merry Christmas to everybody visiting this blog!

System Selections 12-14/12/2008 (Results) and 19-22/12/2008

Another week goes by, and the results have note been updated... At least I've managed to put this week's up just in time... Note that there was one abandoned match in last week's batch which is ammended in the results this week.

Fingers crossed for a positive weekend!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008 (Results), 8-10/12/2008 (Results) and 12-14/12/2008

It's been quite a few days since the blog has last been updated but available time was very scarce... As a result, last weeks results have not been posted where the mid-week selections were missed all together. Anyway, last week saw a couple of matches being postponed and the list of picks has been ammended accordingly:

The mid-week (8-10/12/2008) picks and results (can be verified in my thread at Punters Lounge) are:

whereas this weekend's picks are:

With 26 pending bets, the system performance statistics:

Apologies for anyone that has been following the system and did not have the picks on time... Judging by the system's performance in mid-week, I probably have saved you a bit of dosh!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008

A full coupon ahead and the system has picked 29 bets. Let's see if the weekend is a profitable one!

System Selections 2/12/2008 (Results)

The Luton - Bournemouth match ended in a draw so:

and an update on the system's performance:

System Selections 2/12/2008

Only one of the two matches qualifies as a system pick:

System Selections 29/11-1/12/2008 (Results)

A great weekend for the system's selections which registered healthy profit, raising the yield past the 6% mark. However, it has been a rollercoaster ride so things can easily turn sour!

There are a couple of matches for League Two tonight. Look out for further system selections!

System Selections 25/11/2008 (Results) and 29/11-1/12/2008

It's another one of those All Inclusive posts: it has an update with the midweek results, the weekend's picks and another summary table to monitor performance. So without further ado:

Some good midweek results increasing the profit. Hopefully it will continue over the weekend:

Finally, here are the so far results with 16 pending bets:

System Selections 25/11/2008

The great thing about English football is that it's almost every day... So here are tonight's set of picks according to the system.

Hoping for a profitable night of (virtual) betting!

System Selections 21-24/11/2008 (Results)

A small loss for the system but nothing too serious.

There are additional matches this evening so the system's picks will be posted later today.

System Selections 21-24/11/2008

It was a pretty busy week, so the analysis promised in my previous post did not materialise... Hopefully it can be posted some time next week, thus taking into account this weekend's selections:

System Selections 15-16/11/2008 (Results)

Back into positive territory for the system, carrying forward the recent good form. Long may it continue!

There are midweek international matches which will hopefully give me the chance of updating the thread with a breakdown of these figures, by type of bet (H/D/A) as well as by competition (Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two). Some interesting figures will be coming up...

System Selections 11/11/2008 (Results) and 15-16/11/2008

The midweek pick did not materialise, but there's a whole batch for the weekend. Let's hope that the system's recent form continues!

Fingers crossed!!

System Selections 8-9/11/2008 (Results) and 11/11/2008

Another weekend passes by without me being able to put these selections up on time. As mentioned before they are verified at Punters Lounge, however available time is sometimes not enough... It's a shame really as they proved to be reasonably successful, managing to turn the recent losses to small gains. Anyway, here are the results (for completeness sake):

There is one League One match tonight which incidentally qualifies as a system bet. Come on Yeovil!

The system performance table will be updated tomorrow. Good luck to everyone!

Evaluating a Betting System's Performance (Part One)

It's been quite a while since I last had a blog entry which was not a system update so here is (hopefully) some food for thought.

Surfing the Internet, visiting various betting websites and forums (or should I say fora), I've stumbled across countless betting systems and strategies. These systems consist of not only the tipping part but also different, and sometimes quite elaborate staking plans. An obvious question which arises is "How does one compare these systems?"

I have always been a firm believer that forecasting / prediction models, irrespective of the way their predictions are formulated, should be monitored, evaluated and adjusted; in other words they should be judged. Only by judging a forecasting tool one can hope to improve it. What I am not exactly sure, and please if you have any views do share them, is the way this should be done. You see, everybody looks at the yield and of course this is a measure of how good the system is with this particular set of results. But it's also important to acknowledge that part of a system's performance is due to luck. In other words, if it was possible in a way to re-create all matches in a season, with the same parameters as at the time of the match, what would the system result in, given that not all matches would end up with the same outcome? Is there a way to utilize statistical theory in such a way to account for this uncertainty an create a more robust measure than yield itself? The million dollar question, I guess.

Internet research on this issue leads quite often to the notion of χ²-testing. The idea behind this test is to compare, with some sort of statistical confidence, the number of a system's actual (or observed) winners to the corresponding expected number. For example 15 bets at even odds would yield an expected number of 7.5 winners, but the actual number of winning bets might be 9. Is this sufficient evidence to suggest that the system is performing better than what would be expected by sheer chance? What if the actual winners were 10? 12? All 15?

Well, the χ²-test provides a way to measure this by looking at the probability of achieving the observed result (i.e. the number of actual winners) or a better result by chance. If for example there is a 30% probability of hitting 9 winners or more (given the odds at which the bets were taken) out of 15 simply by chance then the system is not performing necessarily well. As soon however, as this figure is reduced, it means that the system is hitting the winners not necessarily by chance but rather by exploiting value through mis-priced matches. Anyone who has studied any introductory statistics course will tell you that the figure that statisticians are interested in, when testing hypotheses, is the 5% so in effect, according to this test, one would be happy if the χ²-test returned a probability less than 5%.

My personal opinion is that the χ²-test is not necessarily a good indicator of whether the system is performing well. All it does is to check whether the number of winners is significantly higher than what one would expect by sheer chance, but it does not consider the odds at which these winners were picked. What if a system's winners came at very low odds, whereas the system underperformed in the high range of odds. This could lead to a case of achieving a high (as compared to the expected) level of winners, yet the yield could be very low or even negative! Some consolation, I hear you say ... Of course the opposite could also be true: a few longshot winners could be enough to lead to a positive yield yet the number of correct picks could be below the expected number. [For the doubters amongst you that such a case is not as implausible as it may sound, feel free to check the relevant discussion on Punters' Paradise forum.]

The search must carry on. In Part Two of this post (to be posted some time in the near future), I'll look into different ways of assessing whether one has a profitable system and to evaluate its performance. Until then take care!

System Selections 1-3/11/2008 (Results)

The weekend saw a much needed improvement to the system, although we are still in the red. Hopefully, this profit was a sign of things to come rather than a false dawn. Only time will tell!

System Selections 28-29/10/2008 (Results) and 1-3/11/2008

Not a good midweek set of matches with a few late winners in the Premiership turning draws into wins, and profits into losses!

We proceed quickly to the weekend picks and an update will follow on Monday. Hopefully there will be better times ahead!

System Selections 28-29/10/2008

A comeback is needed for the system and a number of longshots is suggested... Hopefully a few of them will come in (including preferably West Ham at Old Trafford at a huge price of 19.00).

System Selections 24-26/10/2008 (Results)

It seems as if it's two steps forward followed by another two steps backwards for the system. I am not prepared though to throw in the towel just yet...

Back tomorrow with the midweek picks!

System Selections 24-26/10/2008

Just is time with the system's selections for the weekend. Hopefully we'll see a return to profit. We shall very soon find out!

System Selections 18-19/10/2008 (Results) and 20-21/10/2008 (Results)

Many apologies, and I hope this does not become (even) more frequent, but exogenous factors have prevented me from updating my blog... As a result, I am sure you are all dying to know about the performance of the system the previous weekend, and are cursing to miss on the midweek selections... I am just posting the results which can be verified from the thread Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008. I know it's the second time I am doing this, but hopefully there won't be many more!

Anyway, the weekend results are:

However, the midweek results were much better:

Following these set of matches, the results have marginally improved. The system is still on the negative side, but slowly but surely, we are (hopefully) getting there!

System Selections 18-19/10/2008

Back with the system's selections for this weekend. A change in fortunes is desperately needed... Let's hope this set will provide it!

System Selections 10-13/10/2008 (Results)

True to form, the weekend delivers another blow to the system with only two picks coming through... A few of the matches had (late) turnarounds with both Leyton Orient and Brentford leading at some point in their respective matches. But the award goes to the Accrington - Bradford match: Stanley were leading 2-0 up to the 80th minute only to lose the match 2-3 ... I rest my case!

Championships are not won in October, they say. They can be lost, however! Hopefully the current form is not a sign of things to come...

System Selections 10-12/10/2008

Eight picks for this weekend, since there are only League One and Two matches. Fingers crossed!

System Selections 3-5/10/2008 (Results)

An average weekend for the system which registered a marginal 0.20 points loss. It's still early days though and a lot can happen between now and May.

The strike rate has settled to about 35% whereas the average strike odds are at 2.82 which leaves the system a bit short for now. However, the average betting odds is 3.07 so in effect, after 245 bets the system is a couple of winners behind... Not the end of the world!

Following last weekend's action, an international break looms which means no matches coming up in the Premier League or the Championship. League One and Two however continue as usual, which means another set of selections will be up soon. Take care!

System Selections 3-5/10/2008

With about half an hour to go before the first match, here are the picks for this weekend. Hopefully the system will turn some profit in... Fingers firmly crossed!

System Selections 27-28/9/2008 and 30/9/2008 (Results)

First of all, an apology: it's been a hectic week and I didn't have much time to update the blog with the system's results last weekend or with the midweek selections/results. I know that the millions (ahem ...) of visitors were massively disappointed but unfortunately things happen!

Let's start with last weekends dreadful performance. I am absolutely speechless! The less said the better I guess... Although having the benefit of hindsight, the midweek results were much better so on average it wasn't too bad. Anyway, here are the results for the 27-28/9/2008 weekend matches.

Moving swiftly along, there were midweek matches and although this may sound as after-eventing (which as I've been told means that someone argues that s/he has bet on an event and won after this event took place) but these were the results of the system's picks:

[For the non-believers, the picks can be verified at my relevant Punters Lounge thread aptly named Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008.] Well, a much better midweek set of selections eats away some of the losses and leaves the system hanging in the balance:

An updated list of selections will be uploaded by this evening. Here's hoping for a return to the positive side by the end of this weekend... But then again, maybe I shouldn't be tempting fate!