Research Ability

A new tool

2009-09-25T08:01:00.007+03:00

I've recently come across Online LaTeX Editors (see for example here) which make publishing scientific notation on the internet quite easy. So I'm reproducing the previous post on the issue of "Multiple Selections and Sharpe Ratio", using a more readable format for the relevant equations....

Multiple Selections and Sharpe Ratio

Full or fractional Kelly staking has been in the foremost of betting staking plans. Using the available odds, and our estimate of the "fair" probability of an event happening, we can calculate what proportion of our bank should be staked in each bet. However, what happens if there are more than one, say n, concurrent selections? How much should one stake in total on the n selections, and how much on each of the selections?

What if we looked at the concept of expected reward-to-risk ratio? In finance, this is also known as Sharpe Ratio and it measures the excess return of an investment per unit of risk. Let's denote a bet with a letter i. The estimated probability of the bet winning is p_i while the available odds are o_i.

The bet would represent value if > . Now, if we invest one unit in this bet the expected profit becomes:

The standard deviation (a measure of the risk) of the bet's profit can be shown to be:

Denoting the expected profit and its standard deviation as and respectively, the Sharpe ratio for a unit stake in a single bet is given by:

When we have more than one selections, , and we invest units in bet i, the total expected profit is given by:

whereas its standard deviation (because of independence between bets) now becomes:

The Sharpe Ratio is given by:

This means that SR is now simply a function of the available odds, the estimated probabilities and the stake in each bet. We can therefore select those stakes which maximize SR with respect to some constraint e.g .

It turns out that the solution to this optimization problem is simply selecting stakes x_i proportional to or more specifically:

Although this may sound heavy, it's quite simple in practical terms. Consider 4 bets, available at odds of 2.05, 1.50, 5.00 and 2.50. Let the estimated probabilities for these bets be 60%, 68%, 22% and 45% respectively. If you follow the steps above you should get the following figures:

Note that with the calculated allocation we have achieved a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.256, which is higher than the ratio that we would have achieved had we invested all of our stake on Bet 1 (which had a Sharpe ratio of 0.229).

In a future post, I will argue how this approach can be especially useful when the multiple selections of bets include non-independent bets e.g. different bets on the same event.

Multiple Selections and Sharpe Ratio

2009-09-07T23:59:00.011+03:00

Full or fractional Kelly staking has been in the foremost of betting staking plans. Using the available odds, and our estimate of the "fair" probability of an event happening, we can calculate what proportion of our bank should be staked in each bet. However, what happens if there are more than one, say n, concurrent selections? How much should one stake in total on the n selections, and how much on each of the selections?

What if we looked at the concept of expected reward-to-risk ratio? In finance, this is also known as Sharpe Ratio and it measures the excess return of an investment per unit of risk. Let's denote a bet with a letter i. The estimated probability of the bet winning is p_i while the available odds are o_i.

The bet would represent value if p_i > 1/o_i. Now, if we invest one unit in this bet the expected profit becomes:

E[Profit_i] = (p_i * o_i - 1)

The standard deviation (a measure of the risk) of the bet's profit can be shown to be:

SD[Profit_i] = o_i * Sqrt[ p_i * (1 - p_i) ]

Denoting the expected profit and its standard deviation as E_i and SD_i respectively, the Sharpe ratio for a unit stake in a single bet is given by:

SR_i = E_i / SD_i

When we have more than one selections, i = 1, 2, ..., n, and we invest x_i units in bet i, the total expected profit is given by:

ExpTotProf = x₁ * E₁ + x₂ * E₂ + ... + x_n * E_n = Sum(x_i * E_i)

whereas its standard deviation (because of independence between bets) now becomes:

SDTotProf = Sqrt ( (x₁ * SD₁)² + (x₂ * SD₂)² + ... + (x_n * SD_n)² )

The Sharpe Ratio is given by:

SR = ExpTotProf / SDTotProf

This means that SR is now simply a function of the available odds, the estimated probabilities and the stake in each bet. We can therefore select those stakes (x₁, x₂, ..., x_n) which maximize SR with respect to some constraint e.g Sum(x_i) = 1.

It turns out that the solution to this optimization problem is simply selecting stakes x_i proportional to E_i / SD_i² or more specifically:

x_{i =} (E_i / SD_i²) / Sum[ E_i / SD_i² ]

Although this may sound heavy, it's quite simple in practical terms. Consider 4 bets, available at odds of 2.05, 1.50, 5.00 and 2.50. Let the estimated probabilities for these bets be 60%, 68%, 22% and 45% respectively. If you follow the steps above you should get the following figures:

Note that with the calculated allocation we have achieved a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.256, which is higher than the ratio that we would have achieved had we invested all of our stake on Bet 1 (which had a Sharpe ratio of 0.229).

Change of course....

2009-09-02T15:51:00.003+03:00

It's September already and I've realised that I've left this blog to die a slow and painful death. I'm pretty sure that everyone is wondering what happened to the system (and possibly myself) ... or maybe not! Anyway, work usually expands to fill available time, so there wasn't much time left to keep everything up-to-date.

The system resulted in significant losses (even though the yield was "only" -2.1%) as the following table shows:

I'm not going to post the remaining 200-or-so bets since the last update, but should anyone be interested enough, you can visit my thread at Punters' Lounge which also includes a small end-of-season analysis ...

What does the future hold? Well, I've been focusing on different modeling procedures, so I'll hopefully have some information on this in the not too distant future. Until then, take care!

The sorry state of affairs....

2009-03-18T16:17:00.002+02:00

Well, it's been yet another hectic month with absolutely no update to the blog, and this has been a result of a couple of things: on the one hand, it's been a result of actually not getting any decent results (the demoralising factor), whereas it was the inevitable outcome of not having enough time for everything that needed my attention (the lack of time factor). Overall, these factors led to the current state of affairs.

Leaving decelopments in my personal life aside, it has been a yo-yo kind of month with the system fluctuating around the break-even point. In a discussion that I had with a fellow poster on Punters Lounge (where I have been updating my results for monitoring purposes), I accepted that I would have stopped posting the system's results had it not been for a promise I made to myself to follow the system through (on paper) until the end of the season.

Based on the above, and for anyone who keeps monitoring this blog (come back, I'll keep it updated, honest guv) the current state of play is as follows:

As you can see, after almost 900 bets the system is just about breaking even, which more than suggests to me that it's not finding betting value. I already have some ideas on what might be going wrong, and it's something that I will try to correct but this update will most probably take place during the summer. Of course, I'll keep updating it and monitoring its performance, since a promise is actually a promise...

System Selections 20-22/2/2009

2009-02-20T22:17:00.004+02:00

Better late than never... The Friday evening matches have just started and in fact the first weekend pick is already going wrong, but a pick is a pick! Another twenty to go!

I am trying to work out what the problem with the system is, as it's failed spectacularly during the past couple of months... But until then, I'll keep monitoring it anyway. Fingers crossed.

System Update

2009-02-19T19:00:00.003+02:00

It's been a long three weeks without a post! When you try to take too-many-things-at-the-same-time on, you are bound to fail unless you can cope with e 3-hour sleep every night... Anyway, between work, family and extra-curricular activities one would necessatily attract less attention, so it happened to be my blog. Apologies if anyone has been waiting for predicitions. I can say however, that I've probably saved you some money since the recent results have been hugely disappointing!

Anyway, I am not going to post all the selections up to now, but here is the latest system update:

As always, the record can be checked at Punter's Lounge where I've managed to post the system's selections in time. I'll (hopefully) be back tomorrow with the weekend predictions. Until then, take care!

System Selections 27-28/1/2009 (Results) and 30/1-1/2/2009

2009-01-31T10:58:00.002+02:00

Mid-week results were somewhat better but there is still a lot of way to go before the system ends up profitable.

Weekend selections included a pick from Friday night, which however resulted in further loss. It's a good thing therefore that I hadn't posted the selections in time! Anyway, here are the rest of the picks:

System Selections 24/1/2009 (Results) and 27-28/1/2009

2009-01-27T18:52:00.004+02:00

Another weekend has come and gone, and the system is registering further losses. In fact, it has returned to an overall loss, wiping out any early-season optisism. Last weekend's results:

Lots of midweek selections which will either dip the system further in trouble or recoup some of the recent losses:

Let's hope for some profit as the system performance is does not make for nice viewing:

System Selections 24/1/2009

2009-01-24T11:13:00.002+02:00

Apologies for going missing for more than a week, but things got quite hectic in terms of work and life in general... You'll be relieved to know that you've managed to avoid quite a few losses by the system, though! I'll post a summary update tomorrow, after today's set of selections.

System Selections 13/1/2009 (Results)

2009-01-14T17:39:00.004+02:00

Yeovil could not beat Scunthorpe unfortunately so it's another small loss for the system. Not to worry though as it's still in positive figures ... for now!

Until the next update, take care!

System Selections 9-12/1/2009 (Results) and 13/1/2009

2009-01-13T17:25:00.004+02:00

Freezing conditions in the UK meant that a number of matches were postponed. As a result, the ammended list of picks follows:

The rescheduled Oldham - Hartlepool match has already been played, and even though I did not post it on the blog on time, I have included it in the results (even though it ended in a loss for the system!). An update of the system's performance will follow tomorrow, after tonight's pick.

System Selections 9-11/1/2009

2009-01-09T17:45:00.002+02:00

Twenty selections for the weekend with quite a few longshot picks...

Good luck to anyone follow these picks! Come on ... the underdogs!

New Year's Progress Report

2009-01-08T16:28:00.006+02:00

Mid-week games were all called off in the four divisions that the system selections are based on, so this is break presents itself as a good chance to look at a few performance indicators.

There have been a total of 601 selections, 229 of which were successful, resulting in a strike rate of 38.1%. The average strike odds were 2.74 leading to a nice positive yield of +4.2%. These figures are not too dissimilar with the corresponding figures obtained during the validation period (strike rate: 38.0%, average strike odds: 2.79 and yield: 6.0%), something which lends its weight to the assumption that the system actually will produce profit in the long run! Although these figures are very encouraging, one should take into consideration that based on the number of bets so far, the probability of ending in (any kind of) loss in the long run is still high (24.4%). This is a result of the (relatively) long odds that the system selections are placed on, and the subsequent less-than-2-in-5 strike rate. So, I would still urge caution to all those who think that this is the Holy Grail of football betting!

It is furthermore interesting to break the figures down by type of bet. As the tables below show, the system has been hindered by the Home selections which recorded a loss of 87.8 points (or -2.9% yield).

At the same time, Away picks performed admirably well, registering a yield of +8.6% and pulling the system well in profit. This was also helped by a surprisingly high (but probably unsustainable) level of yield from the relatively fewer Draw selections. As anyone who is involved in 1X2 prediction will tell you, prediction of Draws is notoriously difficult in football, and the high positive yield (even after just 51 bets) feels very rewarding especially given the fact that the model tackles the draw probability in a unique way.

It is also of interest to break down the system selections by division. Doing this has been an eye-opener for me: the system has been let down by League One and Two selections, which recorded -3.4% and -5.4% yields respectively, whereas Championship picks have registered only a marginal profit (+1.4% yield).

However, it is obvious that the overwhelming majority of the profit recorded was due to the excellent performance of the system over the Premiership selections. A profit of 356.8 units which translates to an impressive 27.0% yield cannot be easily discarded. These figures, it could be argued, that they are counter-intuitive as one would expect that the higher echelons of the football league structure are better priced in terms of odds rather than the lower leagues and therefore not as profitable. Only time will tell if this result has been a random event or a betting opportunity worth exploiting!

P.S. Watch the system crash in the next couple of weeks, having been given the kiss of death!

System Selections 28-30/12/2008 (Results) and 3/1/2009 (Results)

2009-01-05T08:35:00.004+02:00

First of all, let me wish everyone a Happy New Year! Unfortunately, things got a bit busy over the festive period, so I have only just managed to update the blog. This meant that 3 bets over the last weekend were missed but, maybe it was for the better, as they registered small losses. The previous set of picks did not alter the system results in any significant way.

Here are the missed picks (for completeness sake):

Taking into account just over 600 bets, the current state of the system is as follows:

Apart from eating and drinking lots over the Christmas period, I got the chance to research a bit further the system picks. I'll try to put some results up in the next few days. Just a sneak preview, for those backing the picks with real money: the Premiership selections have registered a 27% yield!

System Selections 26/12/2008 (Results) and 28-30/12/2008

2008-12-28T09:09:00.003+02:00

A good Boxing Day for the system with healthy profits being registered and hopfully more of the same for the next few days...

A system performance update will be posted as soon as this batch of selections is settled.. Until then good luck!

System Selections 26/12/2008

2008-12-26T09:31:00.003+02:00

Merry Christmas to everyone! And of course, Boxing Day is a very big day on the English fooball calendar, so here are the system's picks for today:

Good luck to anyone following these picks!

System Selections 19-22/12/2008 (Results)

2008-12-23T08:52:00.004+02:00

A profitable weekend for the system which is most welcome right before Christmas. The Premier League picks seem to be performing pretty well, while League One and Two are currently running on losses. Hopefully, all leagues will return a profit by May!

Next system update will probably be on the 26th so I'd like to wish Merry Christmas to everybody visiting this blog!

System Selections 12-14/12/2008 (Results) and 19-22/12/2008

2008-12-20T09:13:00.002+02:00

Another week goes by, and the results have note been updated... At least I've managed to put this week's up just in time... Note that there was one abandoned match in last week's batch which is ammended in the results this week.

Fingers crossed for a positive weekend!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008 (Results), 8-10/12/2008 (Results) and 12-14/12/2008

2008-12-13T08:49:00.006+02:00

It's been quite a few days since the blog has last been updated but available time was very scarce... As a result, last weeks results have not been posted where the mid-week selections were missed all together. Anyway, last week saw a couple of matches being postponed and the list of picks has been ammended accordingly:

The mid-week (8-10/12/2008) picks and results (can be verified in my thread at Punters Lounge) are:

whereas this weekend's picks are:

With 26 pending bets, the system performance statistics:

Apologies for anyone that has been following the system and did not have the picks on time... Judging by the system's performance in mid-week, I probably have saved you a bit of dosh!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008

2008-12-05T21:03:00.001+02:00

A full coupon ahead and the system has picked 29 bets. Let's see if the weekend is a profitable one!

System Selections 2/12/2008 (Results)

2008-12-04T08:02:00.003+02:00

The Luton - Bournemouth match ended in a draw so:

and an update on the system's performance:

System Selections 2/12/2008

2008-12-02T16:02:00.002+02:00

Only one of the two matches qualifies as a system pick:

System Selections 29/11-1/12/2008 (Results)

2008-12-02T07:58:00.005+02:00

A great weekend for the system's selections which registered healthy profit, raising the yield past the 6% mark. However, it has been a rollercoaster ride so things can easily turn sour!

There are a couple of matches for League Two tonight. Look out for further system selections!

System Selections 25/11/2008 (Results) and 29/11-1/12/2008

2008-11-28T23:46:00.003+02:00

It's another one of those All Inclusive posts: it has an update with the midweek results, the weekend's picks and another summary table to monitor performance. So without further ado:

Some good midweek results increasing the profit. Hopefully it will continue over the weekend:

Finally, here are the so far results with 16 pending bets:

System Selections 25/11/2008

2008-11-25T16:27:00.002+02:00

The great thing about English football is that it's almost every day... So here are tonight's set of picks according to the system.

Hoping for a profitable night of (virtual) betting!

System Selections 21-24/11/2008 (Results)

2008-11-25T07:58:00.005+02:00

A small loss for the system but nothing too serious.

There are additional matches this evening so the system's picks will be posted later today.

System Selections 21-24/11/2008

2008-11-21T20:42:00.003+02:00

It was a pretty busy week, so the analysis promised in my previous post did not materialise... Hopefully it can be posted some time next week, thus taking into account this weekend's selections:

System Selections 15-16/11/2008 (Results)

2008-11-17T11:00:00.005+02:00

Back into positive territory for the system, carrying forward the recent good form. Long may it continue!

There are midweek international matches which will hopefully give me the chance of updating the thread with a breakdown of these figures, by type of bet (H/D/A) as well as by competition (Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two). Some interesting figures will be coming up...

System Selections 11/11/2008 (Results) and 15-16/11/2008

2008-11-14T18:56:00.001+02:00

The midweek pick did not materialise, but there's a whole batch for the weekend. Let's hope that the system's recent form continues!

Fingers crossed!!

System Selections 8-9/11/2008 (Results) and 11/11/2008

2008-11-11T16:17:00.003+02:00

Another weekend passes by without me being able to put these selections up on time. As mentioned before they are verified at Punters Lounge, however available time is sometimes not enough... It's a shame really as they proved to be reasonably successful, managing to turn the recent losses to small gains. Anyway, here are the results (for completeness sake):

There is one League One match tonight which incidentally qualifies as a system bet. Come on Yeovil!

The system performance table will be updated tomorrow. Good luck to everyone!

Evaluating a Betting System's Performance (Part One)

2008-11-05T13:44:00.007+02:00

It's been quite a while since I last had a blog entry which was not a system update so here is (hopefully) some food for thought.

Surfing the Internet, visiting various betting websites and forums (or should I say fora), I've stumbled across countless betting systems and strategies. These systems consist of not only the tipping part but also different, and sometimes quite elaborate staking plans. An obvious question which arises is "How does one compare these systems?"

I have always been a firm believer that forecasting / prediction models, irrespective of the way their predictions are formulated, should be monitored, evaluated and adjusted; in other words they should be judged. Only by judging a forecasting tool one can hope to improve it. What I am not exactly sure, and please if you have any views do share them, is the way this should be done. You see, everybody looks at the yield and of course this is a measure of how good the system is with this particular set of results. But it's also important to acknowledge that part of a system's performance is due to luck. In other words, if it was possible in a way to re-create all matches in a season, with the same parameters as at the time of the match, what would the system result in, given that not all matches would end up with the same outcome? Is there a way to utilize statistical theory in such a way to account for this uncertainty an create a more robust measure than yield itself? The million dollar question, I guess.

Internet research on this issue leads quite often to the notion of χ²-testing. The idea behind this test is to compare, with some sort of statistical confidence, the number of a system's actual (or observed) winners to the corresponding expected number. For example 15 bets at even odds would yield an expected number of 7.5 winners, but the actual number of winning bets might be 9. Is this sufficient evidence to suggest that the system is performing better than what would be expected by sheer chance? What if the actual winners were 10? 12? All 15?

Well, the χ²-test provides a way to measure this by looking at the probability of achieving the observed result (i.e. the number of actual winners) or a better result by chance. If for example there is a 30% probability of hitting 9 winners or more (given the odds at which the bets were taken) out of 15 simply by chance then the system is not performing necessarily well. As soon however, as this figure is reduced, it means that the system is hitting the winners not necessarily by chance but rather by exploiting value through mis-priced matches. Anyone who has studied any introductory statistics course will tell you that the figure that statisticians are interested in, when testing hypotheses, is the 5% so in effect, according to this test, one would be happy if the χ²-test returned a probability less than 5%.

My personal opinion is that the χ²-test is not necessarily a good indicator of whether the system is performing well. All it does is to check whether the number of winners is significantly higher than what one would expect by sheer chance, but it does not consider the odds at which these winners were picked. What if a system's winners came at very low odds, whereas the system underperformed in the high range of odds. This could lead to a case of achieving a high (as compared to the expected) level of winners, yet the yield could be very low or even negative! Some consolation, I hear you say ... Of course the opposite could also be true: a few longshot winners could be enough to lead to a positive yield yet the number of correct picks could be below the expected number. [For the doubters amongst you that such a case is not as implausible as it may sound, feel free to check the relevant discussion on Punters' Paradise forum.]

The search must carry on. In Part Two of this post (to be posted some time in the near future), I'll look into different ways of assessing whether one has a profitable system and to evaluate its performance. Until then take care!

System Selections 1-3/11/2008 (Results)

2008-11-04T07:54:00.004+02:00

The weekend saw a much needed improvement to the system, although we are still in the red. Hopefully, this profit was a sign of things to come rather than a false dawn. Only time will tell!

System Selections 28-29/10/2008 (Results) and 1-3/11/2008

2008-11-01T08:51:00.004+02:00

Not a good midweek set of matches with a few late winners in the Premiership turning draws into wins, and profits into losses!

We proceed quickly to the weekend picks and an update will follow on Monday. Hopefully there will be better times ahead!

System Selections 28-29/10/2008

2008-10-28T15:16:00.002+02:00

A comeback is needed for the system and a number of longshots is suggested... Hopefully a few of them will come in (including preferably West Ham at Old Trafford at a huge price of 19.00).

System Selections 24-26/10/2008 (Results)

2008-10-27T23:08:00.003+02:00

It seems as if it's two steps forward followed by another two steps backwards for the system. I am not prepared though to throw in the towel just yet...

Back tomorrow with the midweek picks!

System Selections 24-26/10/2008

2008-10-24T20:40:00.002+03:00

Just is time with the system's selections for the weekend. Hopefully we'll see a return to profit. We shall very soon find out!

System Selections 18-19/10/2008 (Results) and 20-21/10/2008 (Results)

2008-10-22T13:48:00.005+03:00

Many apologies, and I hope this does not become (even) more frequent, but exogenous factors have prevented me from updating my blog... As a result, I am sure you are all dying to know about the performance of the system the previous weekend, and are cursing to miss on the midweek selections... I am just posting the results which can be verified from the thread Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008. I know it's the second time I am doing this, but hopefully there won't be many more!

Anyway, the weekend results are:

However, the midweek results were much better:

Following these set of matches, the results have marginally improved. The system is still on the negative side, but slowly but surely, we are (hopefully) getting there!

System Selections 18-19/10/2008

2008-10-17T23:25:00.003+03:00

Back with the system's selections for this weekend. A change in fortunes is desperately needed... Let's hope this set will provide it!

System Selections 10-13/10/2008 (Results)

2008-10-14T14:07:00.004+03:00

True to form, the weekend delivers another blow to the system with only two picks coming through... A few of the matches had (late) turnarounds with both Leyton Orient and Brentford leading at some point in their respective matches. But the award goes to the Accrington - Bradford match: Stanley were leading 2-0 up to the 80th minute only to lose the match 2-3 ... I rest my case!

Championships are not won in October, they say. They can be lost, however! Hopefully the current form is not a sign of things to come...

System Selections 10-12/10/2008

2008-10-10T21:12:00.003+03:00

Eight picks for this weekend, since there are only League One and Two matches. Fingers crossed!

System Selections 3-5/10/2008 (Results)

2008-10-07T09:34:00.004+03:00

An average weekend for the system which registered a marginal 0.20 points loss. It's still early days though and a lot can happen between now and May.

The strike rate has settled to about 35% whereas the average strike odds are at 2.82 which leaves the system a bit short for now. However, the average betting odds is 3.07 so in effect, after 245 bets the system is a couple of winners behind... Not the end of the world!

Following last weekend's action, an international break looms which means no matches coming up in the Premier League or the Championship. League One and Two however continue as usual, which means another set of selections will be up soon. Take care!

System Selections 3-5/10/2008

2008-10-03T21:09:00.004+03:00

With about half an hour to go before the first match, here are the picks for this weekend. Hopefully the system will turn some profit in... Fingers firmly crossed!

System Selections 27-28/9/2008 and 30/9/2008 (Results)

2008-10-03T08:59:00.007+03:00

First of all, an apology: it's been a hectic week and I didn't have much time to update the blog with the system's results last weekend or with the midweek selections/results. I know that the millions (ahem ...) of visitors were massively disappointed but unfortunately things happen!

Let's start with last weekends dreadful performance. I am absolutely speechless! The less said the better I guess... Although having the benefit of hindsight, the midweek results were much better so on average it wasn't too bad. Anyway, here are the results for the 27-28/9/2008 weekend matches.

Moving swiftly along, there were midweek matches and although this may sound as after-eventing (which as I've been told means that someone argues that s/he has bet on an event and won after this event took place) but these were the results of the system's picks:

[For the non-believers, the picks can be verified at my relevant Punters Lounge thread aptly named Statistical Football Prediction Model 2008.] Well, a much better midweek set of selections eats away some of the losses and leaves the system hanging in the balance:

An updated list of selections will be uploaded by this evening. Here's hoping for a return to the positive side by the end of this weekend... But then again, maybe I shouldn't be tempting fate!

System Selections 27-28/9/2008

2008-09-27T12:23:00.003+03:00

Better late than never! Last night, I couldn't put the predictions up so you'll have to take my word for it that the system highlighted Southend to win... Anyway, with a couple of hour to go before the first match, here are the weekend's picks...

Once again good luck to anyone following the picks! An update will follow on Monday!

System Selections 20-21/9/2008 (Results)

2008-09-23T12:42:00.003+03:00

After a few very short posts, I have now some more time on my hands. First of all, the previous weekend saw the system registering a small loss with some very mixed results. A couple of real longshots came in (Liverpool drew at home to Stoke and Blackpool beat Birmingham away) but overall quite a few draws ate up a bit of the profit.

The system currently shows a 3.8% yield out of a total of 182 bets so far. The strike rate is at 35.7% while the average strike odds are 2.91.

One could argue that after 182 bets, the system is doing pretty well, but on the one hand the number of bets each weekend (around 25-30 bets) and on the other hand the size of the strike odds mean that additional bets are needed before confidently assessing the performance of the system. Furthermore, a reasonable way of assessing this performance is not imminently evident and a number of indices can be used. But, more on this will come on a later date. In the meantime, if you have any suggestions feel free to add your comments!

System Selections 20-21/9/2008

2008-09-19T20:30:00.002+03:00

Very quick update... no time available!

System Selections 16-17/9/2008 (Results)

2008-09-17T08:29:00.003+03:00

A good midweek set of matches for the system, and it could have been even better had Coventry or Derby held on until the end. Nevertheless, profit is profit.

So far the results seem to confirm what has been seen in the testing period in terms of strike rate, average bet/strike odds and yield. But it's still early days!

System Selections 16-17/9/2008

2008-09-16T16:43:00.003+03:00

A few Championship picks today. Frankly, I don't feel very confident but who am I to judge the brilliance of statistics!

Good luck to anyone who is actually putting their money where where the system's mouth is!

System Selections 13-14/9/2008 (Results)

2008-09-16T16:38:00.003+03:00

A quick update with the system's results: a small loss for the weekend keeps the system on positive ... just!

Another set of matches is coming shortly. The summary table will be updated tomorrow.

System Selections 13-14/9/2008

2008-09-13T11:42:00.003+03:00

Better late than never ... With three hours to go before the Liverpool - Man Utd match, here are this weeks system's selections. Let's see if the system can keep on the right side of the 0.0 line!

Best of luck to anyone actually following these tips!

System Selections 5-6/9/2008 (Results)

2008-09-09T08:20:00.003+03:00

Even though it's still September, it would seem that some patterns have started to emerge from the system's picks. Lower leagues have not been profitable so far and last weekend was another such day.

Nevertheless, the system is still in the ... blue, which translates to profit. Hopefully, this will continue to be the case.

Until next week then!

System Selections 5-6/9/2008

2008-09-05T19:46:00.002+03:00

No Premiership/Championship matches this weekend, but plenty of League One and Two picks. Let's see how the model picks will perform.

Best of luck to anyone follwoing these picks!

Premiership 2008-2009 Preview

2008-09-02T11:48:00.008+03:00

I am sure most of the people reading this blog (funny guy, I know!) are well acquainted with the television show 24. Well, they should make something similar for the last transfer day of the season, the day the "window" closes. I am pretty sure that it will be equally exciting, nerve-racking, pleasantly surprising for some, bitterly disappointing for others. Well, the 1st of September (extended for one day, since the 31st of August was a Sunday) was all that ... and much, much more!

I have delayed this (p)review of the Premiership season, until all (major) transfers were finalized, as it is still possible for some free transfers to take place. It was as if I knew that, as is usually the case, the transfer deadline day more often than not, throws a few surprises. Who would have thought that Man City would overnight become a major, major, player in the Premier League beating Chelsea to the signing of the Brazilian football wizard, Robinho? Or that Liverpool would actually manage to sign a left-sided player after months and months of dallying?

Undoubtedly, the biggest story of the day was Man City changing hands. By taking over the Sky Blues, Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment (ADUG) have turned the tables on one of the most elite groups in world football the Premiership's so-called "Big Four". It will be very interesting to watch, depending whether the Arabs continue their spending in the January transfer window, whether Man City can win the right to qualify for the 2009-2010 Champions League by finishing in the top four and more importantly, should they manage to do so, which one out of Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool drop out. (I know that this can be very controversial, but the odds on anyone else breaking into this group are pretty long.) In the medium term, this move may have created yet another strong English team in the European playing field, something which will no doubt create shock waves in UEFA and its president Michel Platini in particular.

In terms of this year's Premier League, the status quo will most probably remain similar to previous years. Chelsea and Man Utd have started very strongly, with Chelsea's new signings in Deco and Bosingwa already starting to prove their worth. Under Luiz Felipe Scolari, I expect Chelsea to play a more expansive brand of football while remaining quite strong at the back. My personal opinion is that Chelsea will prevail in this year's title race.

Man Utd, on the other hand, managed to close the deal with Dimitar Berbatov who will provide Alex Ferguson with an alternative to Man Utd's rotating strikers type of football (more on this on a coming blog entry). No other transfers in, but with an additional year of maturity, the squad remains strong and will push Chelsea all the way for the Championship.

Liverpool and Arsenal will most probably wrap up the Champions League spots, as they currently seem stronger than teams like Aston Villa, Tottenham, Everton and Portsmouth. But unfortunately, not consistent enough to challenge Man Utd and Chelsea. Maybe in May, I'll be proven wrong, but I have yet to see evidence to the contrary.

The Uefa Cup spots will be split among the usual suspects although Man City will probably gatecrash the party. Tottenham and Portsmouth have not started very well but will soon pick up speed whereas Aston Villa and Everton are always teams capable of inflicting damage. On the other hand, Newcastle seems to be in constant turmoil, something which could damage their chances.

As for relegation, the new boys are prime candidates. The Premier League is a select club that if you manage somehow to gain entry to, the competition to stay in is fierce. And even though both Hull and Stoke have had some great results, the pressure will eventually take its toll. West Brom may benefit from their recent presence in the top division, but they will most probably be there or thereabouts. As for the remaining teams, Bolton and Fulham may struggle and one of them could possibly be playing their football in the Championship in 2009.

Time will tell!

System Selections 30-31/8/2008 (Results)

2008-09-02T11:32:00.003+03:00

The weekend picks resulted in a small loss, but the system is still doing well. The nature of the selections though (i.e. odds of around 2.50-3.00 with a strike rate of 35%-40%) means that large swings are possible.

After more than 100 bets, the selections have resulted in a healthy 6.9% yield. Fingers crossed for the future!

System Selections 30-31/8/2008

2008-08-30T16:08:00.005+03:00

Better late than never... System selections for the weekend. Let's see where these take us!

An update will follow by Monday. Have a nice weekend!

System Selections 22-25/8/2008 (Results)

2008-08-26T08:17:00.006+03:00

A much needed comeback for the system, reversing the (virtual) losses and turning a slight profit. The performance was boosted by Sunderland's and Fulham's victories over the two North London arch rivals Tottenham and Arsenal respectively. Middlesbrough was 5 minutes away from another surprise result but Liverpool escaped unharmed.

The current (system) standings show a nice strike rate of almost 40% while the yield has moved to +11.8% from the negative sign of the previous updates.

No midweek matches so the next system update will be in a few days. Until then take care.

Goodbye Bejing!

2008-08-25T10:20:00.003+03:00

After another spectacular ceremony, the 2008 Beijing Olympics are officially over! Some great competitors (and unfortunately due to doping, some not-so-great ones...) and some amazing performances kept the interest throughout the Games. Usain Bolt broke both the 100m and the 200m world records, before helping a magnificent Jamaica relay team to break the 4x100m relay world record. I can't even begin to imagine what would happen if he actually had any competition!

Bolt's achievements were matched by another impressive athlete. Swimmer Michael Phelps broke the record of the number of gold medals in a single Olympic Games by securing eight medals. He currently holds a total of 14 gold medals, more than any other Olympian ... ever! Truly inspiring stuff!

In terms of football, and more specifically betting-wise, it was another successful set of picks as posted here. Argentina won gold after a 1-0 win over Nigeria in the final. In yet another Olympic tournament, Brazil performed below expectations and Olympic gold is the only prize that still eludes them. All in all, a total outlay of 10 units returned 12.89 units which were added to the pot. Until the next bet!

System Selections 22-25/8/2008

2008-08-23T20:42:00.003+03:00

Today's selections include a few longshots. Hopefully they will put the system back on track!

An update will follow on Monday... Have a nice weekend until then!

System Selections 16-17/8/2008 (Results)

2008-08-19T08:27:00.005+03:00

A bit late with the updated system's results but I have been away and unable to update the blog. Again not the best of weekends in terms of results, but I remain optimistic that results will pick up.

As you may have noticed a few additional bets were highlighted by the system, but unfortunately were not successful. They have been included in the results for completeness.

The results so far show a strike rate of 34% which is around the expected levels but unfortunately the strike odds are much lower than needed. It may be the case of a couple of longshots coming in, so we will just sit tight and wait!

System Selections 16-17/8/2008

2008-08-14T14:28:00.004+03:00

The start of the Premier League is upon us. The summer is officially over (well almost!). A preview will be written next week, once the first set of matches are over but until then, here are the picks for next weekend:

Results will be updated after the matches. Until then have a nice weekend!

System Selections 9-10/8/2008 (Results)

2008-08-11T12:15:00.005+03:00

Here is the first update of the system results. Not the best of starts although a few of the results could have gone either way.

At odds of around 2.50 - 3.00, it only takes one or two bets to come in for great swings. Hopefully, things will get better next week.

Until then, back to data updating!

System Selections 9-10/8/2008

2008-08-08T12:12:00.004+03:00

At last, it's here! Following weeks and months of rumors, transfer dealings and pre-season friendlies, English football starts tomorrow. Before each set of matches you will be able to find here the system's selections. A level-stake bet of 10 units (each of us may have a different budget so the term units will be used) will be taken on each of these matches at odds available by the bookmakers shown in the table. The results will be updated in a separate post after each set of matches with a small summary table similar to the one on the right hand side of the blog.

Without further ado, here are the first system picks for this year:

Wish me luck! It will most definitely be needed!

Finding value

2008-08-08T08:50:00.005+03:00

Following the posts on the football match prediction system. we have reached the point whereby a chosen model based on certain variables will provide estimates for the probability of a home win, a draw and an away win in any match. What is left, is the small step of translating these probabilities into odds and a deciding whether a bet would be profitable (in the long run) or not.

Assuming that according to a model, the probability of a home win in a given match is estimated at 40%. That would mean that the "fair" odds for this event occurring would be 1 / 40% = 2.50 in decimal form or 6/4 in fractional form. [I'll be using the decimal form from now on as it's easier in algebraic expressions]. If a bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 then according to the model, this betting opportunity does not represent "value" and therefore should be avoided. This does not mean that the match will definitely not end in a home win, however, if an identical match is priced by the model again and again (and again), in the long run, a punter betting on this event will be losing money since the odds offered do not reflect the probability (according to the punter) of that event happening. On the other hand, if a rival bookmaker offers odds of 2.62 for this event, then it should be profitable (in the long run) to bet on a home win since after a number of bets, the punter will be making money because of the value found in these prices.

Essentially, it all comes down to two things: the first is the estimated probability of something happening. The bookmaker and the punter try to price up a match. They both have their subjective probabilities for HDA which are then translated to odds. Time will tell who is pricing the matches correctly (and thus making money off the other).

The second factor to consider is an advantage to the bookmaker. The bookmaker does not need to offer odds which when translated to probabilities sum up to 1. This means that the odds offered are lower than what should have been offered if the bookmaker was fair. This difference is what is called as the overround, and it represents the bookmaker's profit margin. Therefore, a punter will not only need to find value in the bookmaker's odds, but also to overcome his profit margin before actually making money in the long run.

However, the punter can also act for himself. By shopping around, finding the best prices offered by different bookmakers, the punter can almost eliminate the overround, thus start from a level-playing field. He can also use the available booking exchanges to find more competitive prices. These exchanges, in effect, give him the opportunity to become a bookmaker by setting odds for others to bet on, thus creating a market for odds which may be better than the odds offered by online bookmakers.

So there you have it: the system picks will depend on the estimated probabilities of each event (HDA) occurring and the best available prices offered by several bookmakers. Time will tell how accurate our predictions were, and how profitable (or disastrous) the developed model actually is. Fingers crossed!

Olympics football picks

2008-08-05T23:33:00.003+03:00

Just a short note to post my picks for the Olympics football tournament. Again it will be a tournament of 16 teams, split into 4 groups. There are two strong favourites in Argentina and Brazil who seem to be taking this competition much more seriously than the rest of the teams taking part. Should these two nations top their respective groups, they will probably meet in the semi-finals. For these reasons, both Argentina and Brazil will be two of my picks to win the gold medal.

My third pick will be the exciting Netherlands team who won the Under-21 European Championship playing very nice football. They have a bit tougher group to top, as compared to Italy, but should they manage to come out of the group first, I can see them making it to the final.

It's much more difficult making predictions for the Olympics football tournament because of the squad selection limitations. A total outlay of 10 units (odds from William Hill) is split into:

Stake 4.92 units on Argentina at 2.62
Stake 3.79 units on Brazil at 3.40
Stake 1.29 units on the Netherlands at 10.00

The summary statistics on the left have been updated. Let the Games begin!

Predicting football matches

2008-08-05T11:04:00.003+03:00

The background is out of the way, the tools have been selected, now it's the time to get our hands dirty with the small details. Whichever model we choose, it will need some input in terms of factors which may affect our predictions. These have to be chosen wisely otherwise we may replicate the old motto of "Garbage in, garbage out".

Our approach is based on the general football concept of "class" and "form". It is often suggested that form is temporary while class is permanent so we will pick variables to model these general ideas. To account for the class of each team, we start with the obvious choice of variable of ... the actual teams playing! This translates to the fact that when Man Utd are playing at home against Hull City, it is expected that the probability of a home win is much bigger than the probability of a home win when Man Utd are playing against Arsenal. In fact, past performance is a pretty good place to begin and it turns out that decent (but not necessarily profitable) models can be built using the "class" approach. As for how to rate each team, there are both ad-hoc methods and optimization techniques. This is not a statistics lecture, so I'll leave it for now...

The form of each team is something more transient. A lot of punters who are building football prediction systems use the recent matches to judge on a team's form. This has both advantages in the sense that if a team is going through a good patch, it's more likely to have a good game than not. On the other hand, something that is often overlooked is the standard of the opposition teams against which form is being evaluated, compared to the standard of the opposition team in the next match. Maybe, there is scope for improvement here.

A team manages to score a goal after it has created some chances. Sure, some teams are more lethal and take the few chances that come along, but usually, the more (and better) chances a team creates, the higher the number of goals it will score. Therefore, we decided to use variables which describe the attacking capability of each team and its propensity to create chances. Unfortunately, for now, we don't have a measure to classify chances as good or difficult, although this "problem" provides also room for potential improvement.

Again, the small print will be left out of the blog for now, but if anyone out there is reading this and has any comments or views, please feel free to post them and who knows, maybe a fruitful discussion will facilitate further information on this.

Choosing the right tools

2008-07-31T08:13:00.009+03:00

Having now established two of the types of models that can be used for this project, we now turn our attention to choosing one of them. The fundamental difference between the two is that in the case of the logistic regression model of the match outcome, a 5-0 thrashing is considered (for modeling purposes) as the same as an ugly 1-0 win, while an entertaining 3-3 draw does not differ in any way with a boring 0-0 stalemate. Alternatively, modeling the whole probability distribution of match scores (i.e. assigning a probability estimate for each and every one of the scorelines) allows for these differences at the potential cost of higher estimation burden (possibly accompanied by an increased estimation error).

In effect we have a simple model, and a more complex one. We don't know much about their forecasting ability yet, although one could argue that sufficient backtesting should have clarified if one is significantly better than the other. However, one consideration that should be taken into account is the fact that modelling the whole distribution of goals (i.e. using the complex model) would also highlight cases where other types of betting (rather than 1X2 betting) could be profitable such as the "Number of Goals" market, Asian handicap, or even correct score betting.

As stated above, the chosen model tries to mimic the behaviour of two variables, namely the goals scored by the home team and the ones scored by the away team. In the univariate case, goals in a match can be seen to reflect events taking place at an unknown rate within a time-period (in the football scenario, 90 minutes), assumed to be constant throughout. This is called the "Poisson Process". The probability distribution of goals, that is the probability of the number of goals scored by the end of the match being 0, 1 2 , ... is entirely dependent on the unknown scoring rate. The bivariate case is simply an extension of this scenario, with the two teams having possibly differing scoring rates. But since they are playing each other, they interact, hence it's probable that their scoring rates are not independent, so under this scenario some sort of dependence structure is needed.

Anyone reading this blog will excuse me for not divulging further details for now. When adjustments are needed, more information on the type of model used may be given out but for now, allow me to keep some things to myself... Until then we shall be focusing on what may or may not be useful in predicting football scores.

The project

2008-07-26T22:33:00.008+03:00

Today's post is somewhat different. It's the beginning of a long but hopefully successful journey. You see, one of the reasons of having a blog for me was to have a chance of combining a few of my interests, namely football, betting and statistics. Of course, I could do this without putting my thoughts on the blog, but having them here would put some sort of pressure on me to carry on, even if the going gets tough! And who knows, if it proves to be profitable, somebody else may benefit too!

As mentioned before this is simply the beginning, an introduction if I may. The idea was to develop a football match prediction model which would estimate the probability of a Home win, a Draw and an Away win (HDA from now on) of football matches as accurately as possible. These estimated probabilities would be used to decide whether the offered odds by a bookmaker provide value. But I am getting ahead of myself here. Let's take things from the beginning.

In strict statistical terms, modeling the outcome of a football match is a classic example of logistic regression. The "event" (that's the match) can take any of three "values" (H, D or A) with some unknown probability which we are trying to estimate. These probabilities will depend on factors such as the teams playing, home advantage, and possibly other variables such as the form of each team etc. It is our mission to find that model which mimics the real results as closely as possible.

One could also suggest that since the outcome of a match depends on the number of goals scored by each team, a better idea would be to model the match score itself. Such an analysis would provide probability estimates for every single possible result i.e. 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 2-1, or even 3-5. By adding the appropriate probabilities one would be able to infer the estimated probability of H, D or A.

So to recap, on the one hand we have some sort of a logistic regression model of the match outcome, while on the other a (bivariate) probability distribution model of the match score. There are pros and cons in either case, which probably brings me to George Box's "All models are wrong, but some are useful". Only time will tell, whether the chosen approach is useful.

The contract

2008-07-24T11:30:00.007+03:00

I know, I know... three weeks without a post and one could easily think that this blog is over before it even began! Had I signed a contract though, the frequency of the updates would have definitely been inserted as a clause and I would have to respect it... or would I?

Contracts are the flavour of this year's summer. And it's not just the Cristiano Ronaldo saga (I was thinking of including a link but where do I begin? Maybe this is the most appropriate) which is still going on with as many twists and turns as the player's moves on the football pitch. Gareth Barry has also been involved in a tug of war between Aston Villa and Liverpool regarding his registration. So should players be forced to honour the contracts that they have already signed or should they be allowed to blackmail their clubs, forcing them to accept a transfer?

Let's take Ronaldo's example: he plays for Manchester United but he more or less says that he would like to go to Real Madrid. Of course, he is under contract with the Red Devils, a contract that he was expected to see out unless both his team and himself agreed upon its cancellation. Real Madrid play the game very carefully: they know that approaching the player without Man Utd's agreement would probably land them some sort of fine by FIFA (although it is Real Madrid that we are talking about...). At the same time, they are making noises about wanting Ronaldo dressed in the white shirt of Madrid.

Ronaldo himself is also in a delicate position. He knows what he wants (the whole world probably does) but is also aware that it may be the case that he will still be at Man Utd come September 1st. He does not want to burn any bridges ... yet! So he sits still. Officially demanding a transfer would probably cost him (in money terms), whereas should Real launch a bid and is accepted, he would benefit more.

But what of the contract which is already under way? Manchester United obviously do not want to sell him, and they may even try to force him to stay by flatly rejecting any approach. And then what? You end up with a disgruntled player, not producing at the best of his ability or even worse who is forced to watch the game from the stands (as Ferguson threatened). Furthermore, the dressing room morale may take a hit and as a result the team's form may plunge especially when we are talking about such an important player.

So who is right in all of this? In my opinion, contracts are there to be respected. If a player is not happy, he should have thought twice before agreeing on what was offered. If he desperately wants to move, then he should find a club who will compensate the team which holds the player's registration adequately. "Adequately" here means at a price which represents the value of the player to his current team (and of course that value may be different to the value of the player to his prospective team), however that is defined. Now whether the valuation is representative or not, that's another post!

May the best team win!

2008-07-01T07:49:00.003+03:00

Euro 2008 is officially over with Spain lifting the trophy after 44 long years. The general consensus is that one of, if not the best team has won it, even though many of the pundits had their doubts. For me they were the most complete team with an athletic, although sometimes suspect defense, a fluid midfield and a lethal attack. Their only negative was the "underachievers" tag which is always attributed to Spain, but hopefully this will now change.

The final itself was not an especially great match, but you couldn't help but admire Spain's fluidity. Xavi was justly named player of the tournament as it was his movement and passing which made the team tick. But not naming the rest of that midfield would be a disservice to players such as Senna who provided a strong shield to the back four, Silva and Iniesta who created chances for themselves or their teammates and Fabregas who was always dangerous in the final third. Special mention also goes to Xabi Alonso who was simply in imperious form when given the chance, especially against Greece.

Betting-wise, my bets proved to be profitable. The fact that two of my four picks (Germany, Spain, Italy and Croatia) made it to the final meant that a cover bet was not necessary. A total outlay of 14.22 units on these four picks, with a return of 4.17 x 6.00 = 25.02 units for the winner, means a yield of 75.9% which is not bad for a start. [On a side note, I am planning to keep track of these tips and who knows, maybe sometime they will prove profitable for other people too!]

Now that Euro 2008 has finished and the transfer window is officially open, teams will turn to improve their squads. Scolari has been busy at Chelsea signing Deco for an estimated £8m while Arsenal and Liverpool will soon be sealing the signings of Samir Nasri and Andrea Dossena respectively. Further comment on the transfer dealings will be coming soon. Until then, I am off to enjoy the Euro 2008 winnings .... not!

One-man team

2008-06-23T12:11:00.004+03:00

“It’s a team game” they kept shouting to the Ronaldinho-wannabe when he kept dribbling the ball until he went past each of his 5-a-side opponents twice, in our weekly kick-about. In the end he scored by nutmegging the keeper but that’s not the point, or is it? Well, a couple of weeks later, he couldn’t make it to the game and his team was soundly beaten. Today’s entry is about the huge influence of some specific players on their team.

Take for example France. World champions in 1998 with a baldy guy (no, not Pierluigi Collina) in the middle pulling the strings producing football which was sometimes breathtaking and very often mesmerizing. Then a couple of years later, at Euro 2000, Zidane is at it again, dancing past defenders as if they are not there, and threading the ball through the eye of the needle for the attackers to score.

So what happens when the midfield maestro is either not there or not at his best? Well, a Zidane-less France lose to Senegal in the 2002 World Cup opening match before a goalless draw against Uruguay. Zidane is rushed back, only for France to lose to Denamrk and be eliminated from the World Cup group stage without scoring a single goal. And then when he decided to retire, with France faltering in the qualification for the 2006 World Cup, he was begged to return to action by the manager of France, Raymond Domenech. He returned to lead France to the final (and we all remember what happened then…).

Since his retirement, France have never been the same. The creative vision is missing, the speed of thought is not quick enough and the pattern of play much more predictable. France being eliminated in the group stage at Euro 2008 just highlights the problem and without a clear heir to Zidane’s throne, the future may not be very rosy for Les Bleus.

It is a general misconception that such a loss is only evident at the creative end of the field. Fabio Cannavaro’s absence from Italy’s squad at the Euro proves this wrong. Italy have a tradition of top class defenders and if someone had to put a picture next to the definition of the complete defender one of the few images one could use was that of Cannavaro (Franco Baresi’s would also be there, another Italian!). A cruel injury sidelined the Italian skipper, and he was forced to watch in agony as the makeshift defense was shred to pieces from a rampant Holland in the opening group stage match. The leadership qualities, reading of the game, and impeccable timing that define the 2006 Would Cup best player were conspicuous by their absence.

Taking Italy’s example a step further, they were last night dumped out of the tournament by Spain. In their match, Italy were authoritative in defense but almost clueless in attack. Their idea of a creative attack was to punt long high-balls to their lone striker Toni, in the hope that he would control the ball and either stick it in the net or have someone come from behind (ooer!) for the flick on. So what had changed from the way Italy played in the last three matches (even in the Holland debacle, Italy in fact played really well)? Simple really: Andrea Pirlo. Just watch the quarterfinal again, and compare it with any of Italy’s previous matches. Witness the creative genius of Pirlo quite often in tight situations, and contrast with what Italy were doing last night…

So there you have it. Quite often, teams rely too much on single players, whose contribution is either for all to see (see for example Cristiano Ronaldo at Man Utd), or underrated by many (see Makelele while at Real Madrid). Unfortunately, teams may not plan ahead in order to have contingency plans and are found out as soon as their star performers are missing. Spectators are often hypnotized by individual ability, but it is the collective performance that will win you trophies in the long run. Let’s hope, for Russia’s sake, that Andrei Arshavin will be at his best in a couple of days’ time…

Progress Report (2nd Update)

2008-06-19T11:26:00.004+03:00

Well, the European Championships group stage matches are officially over and the last quarterfinal berth was clinched by the talented Russians, both those on the pitch and their (female) fans off it! So the knockout stage line-up is:

Portugal - Germany
Croatia - Turkey
Netherlands - Russia
Spain - Italy

Four intriguing ties which are evenly balanced, thus keeping the interest sky-high. All four of my pre-tournament picks, have made it to the second stage with at least one out of Spain and Italy through to the semi-final. So far so good!

The first quarterfinal tie will be held tonight. Portugal have rested their first team for the final group stage match against Switzerland so their defeat should not be taken into account. On the other hand, the Germans (along with the Italians) can never be discounted but will probably be viewed as slight underdogs in this match-up. Nevertheless, this promises to be an open match which I am really looking forward to (cue a bore 0-0 draw!).

Croatia have the upper hand against the Turks, even though the latter have come form behind in their last two matches to progress from the group. Bilic's team however are really working well, and should have enough in the tank to dispose of Turkey. Which is good as Croatia were my dark horses for this tournament...

The Netherlands against Russia is a match that will probably puzzle many punters. The Netherlands had a couple of fantastic results against world champions Italy and France, which were however achieved through clinical counter-attacking football. So what may happen against a team which adopts a similar approach is anyone's guess. It may end in a cagey affair with a few openings with each of the teams preferring to wait for their chance, or it may hopefully result in a fast tempo, end-to-end match flowing football match with chances at both ends.

And finally to the Spain-Italy match. My gut feeling is that Italy have played a lot better than their results have suggested. Unlucky against the Oranje when better finishing from the Italians would probably have resulted in a completely different outcome and robbed against Romania when Luca Toni's legitimate goal was wrongly disallowed for offside, the Italians still have something to prove. And do not be surprised if they go all the way again. The loss of Pirlo and Gattuso from the quarterfinal is a significant one, what with Spain's impressive midfield but should they manage to overcome the Iberians, they will be very strong in the semi-final. Of course, it would also depend on their opponents' form which has so far managed to disprove the "underachiever" tag usually associated with Spain. But then again, it is at this stage that Spain usually falters. I really hope they don't!

Betting-wise, I would ideally prefer Croatia and Germany to progress while I have no preference over Italy or Spain. Football-wise however, and I know this is a cliché, may the best team on the pitch qualify!

Progress Report

2008-06-13T00:35:00.006+03:00

The European Championships are well under way, with half of the group stage matches finished, and there have been some interesting highlights already. Nice goals, generally exciting matches (Sweden - Greece jumps to mind ... not!), controversial decisions etc, etc. And surely there is more to come. Here's just a quick update on the betting front. The outright picks can be found here.

Tournament favourites Germany have just been beaten by Croatia and although still favourites to qualify from the group, will now have to face in-form Portugal in the quarterfinal stage, should they progress. This reduces their chances of winning the trophy, while at the same time Croatia has proven their track record and should be favourites to reach the semi-final stage. So I guess, at least one out of Croatia and Germany will probably reach the semi-final, hopefully (in a betting sense) both!

Group C is tougher (as expected) to call, and is thrown open by the first set of matches. With four matches to go, my gut-feeling is that, should Italy qualify, they would probably do so in second place thus having to most probably face Spain who were magnificent against Russia. However, Italy have it all to do, with both France and Romania being very hard teams to beat. Safer predictions will probably be feasible tonight after the second set of matches.

Spain have started as if they were playing in the final itself and will probably secure first place tomorrow by beating Sweden. But further progress in the tournament would depend on which Spanish team turns up in the quarterfinals: the one which tore apart the Russian back line, or the one which laboured to a 1-0 win against the USA in their previous match. If it is the former then Spain will probably reach the semi-final stage at least, if not they'l probably crash out ... again!

In other news, "Big Phil" Scolari has been appointed as the next Chelsea boss, taking over once Euro 2008 finishes. Interesting times ahead at the Bridge! More on that later.

It's Euro time!

2008-06-04T10:08:00.004+03:00

The summers of the even-numbered years are usually shorter for the football fans across Europe, not due to the latest scientific discovery, I hasten to add. The footballing authorities have arranged for one of the two major (from a European point of view) international tournaments, namely the World Cup and the Euro, to occur in alternate years. Which means that with the Champions' League final still fresh in the minds, attention will be turned to the pitches of Austria and Switzerland where the best European players (the English would probably debate this...) will battle it out to be crowned European Champions. Once that's done, after a couple more weeks with the transfer activity probably picking-up, the club friendlies will start and before you know it the 2008/09 season will kick-off. These summers are really shorter...

I am not going to write a preview of the European Championships as there are a million of write-ups in the infinite Internet space. However, I'll articulate my views betting-wise, just to keep a log of my original thoughts when my picks crash to the ground!

First of all, as the blog's name suggests these bets were supposed to be based on research. It's my ambition, as anyone else whose interests combine the unambiguous order of mathematics, the unpredictable magic of football and the exhilarating feeling of a punter's risk-taking, to create a profitable betting system which would remove part of the uncertainty associated with a football match's outcome. Since this is a long-term objective, and because international tournaments occur (relatively) less frequently, my Euro 2008 picks are based on researching my gut-feelings, coupled with some points picked up from football analysis, either through friends, or on the Net/TV/newspapers etc.

I've decided to back four different teams as an outright winner of the tournament. The way the drawing procedure has been decided, the final will consist of one team from Groups A and B and one from Groups C and D. As a result, I've chosen two teams from the first set of groups and two from the second.

Group A consists of the co-hosts Switzerland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey while participating in Group B are the Germans, the Croats, the Polish and the other co-hosts, Austria. My personal opinion is that the Germans will always there. The fact that they will practically be playing at home, coupled with a decent group draw, will mean that they'll probably make the semi-finals at least. Of course that's also evident from the odds available but at 5.00, I still think it's a good bet. For my second pick, I was contemplating whether to back Portugal, but although their play is very attractive, I am thinking that they may come unstuck in the knock-out phase. Instead I've opted for the Croats who are my dark horses! Talented manager Slaven Bilic has created quite a following and Croatia may prove to be this tournament's Greece! At 13.00 it was definitely worth a shot.

Groups C and D appear more complicated. On the one hand, Group C hosts the World Champions Italy, along with strong teams such as France, the Netherlands and Romania. Group D consists of the European Champions Greece, perennial underachievers Spain, along with Sweden and Russia. Picking two teams from these two groups proved more difficult. It is my belief that any two of the four teams from Group C can progress, although some advantage has to be given to Italy. Yet on any given day, results could go either way, and following the injury to the magnificent Fabio Cannavaro, their task has become even bigger. At 8.00 they provide some value, and you can usually bet that they will grind out the results when needed. Finally, I've decided to back Spain as my fourth team on the basis of two arguments: they look very strong on all areas of the pitch, and they are usually underachieving, meaning that it will bound to be their turn at some point! Odds of 6.00 probably reflect the former rather than the latter consideration!

I wanted to spread the risk/winnings equally so my four single bets are as follows (all teams picked as an Outright Winner from William Hill):

Stake 5.00 units on Germany at 5.00
Stake 4.17 units on Spain at 6.00
Stake 3.13 units on Italy at 8.00
Stake 1.92 units on Croatia at 13.00

Total stake out is 14.22 units. We'll have to wait for three weeks to find out what the return is (if any!). For now, let the games begin!

Introducing quotas ...

2008-05-28T10:13:00.006+03:00

By "quotas", I am not talking about the dearth of new posts in this blog (or of any comments whatsoever), rather than the idea of introducing quotas in football. As mentioned in previous posts, this blog will combine topics such as football, betting, statistics and so on, so here are a few figures.

Apparently, according to research by BBC Sport, only 34% of the number of players who started matches in the Premier League qualify to play for England. This figure, which translates to 170 out of 498 players, is at an all-time low, with the corresponding figure in 2006/07 being 191 players (38%). The article seems to suggest that this drop in the number of English players has aggravated the selection dilemma faced by the current England manager, Fabio Capello and as a result, the quality of the English national side.

One suggested solution is what Sepp Blatter through FIFA proposes: limit the number of foreign starters to five for each team. This would be enforced gradually with 4 being the minimum number of starting home players in the 2010/11 season and rising by one, each year until the full implementation of the plan in 2012/13. Before deciding what constitutes a "home" player (e.g. would the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish be classified as "home" players or would they need to be considered as foreigners to the English game?) and without wanting to enter the legality of the measure, I am baffled by the reasoning behind such a quota system, and what the likely results would be. The president of FIFA argues that this plan will help to " ... make sure there is better balance and not only three or four teams in a league of 18 or 20 fighting to be champions ". He goes on to argue that the objective of this plan is to remedy situations such as the one which arose this year with three of the four semi-finalists in the Champions' League coming from the same association, before, in my opinion, contradicting himself by highlighting the fact that six of the starting eleven Man Utd players in the final were English. So does that mean that they won because they were English, or despite their nationality? In the immortal words of Fawlty Towers' Manuel - another foreigner - "Que?"

One has to decide what the problem is before offering a solution. Is the problem the performance of each country's national team? Is it a perceived loss of identity of teams at club level? Is it the temporary dominance of same-association teams in European competitions? The segmentation of teams within a league (e.g Big Four in England, Big Two in Scotland etc) affecting the domestic competition? Is it a problem of sub-standard level of football being played? Or is it something else? Whatever the problem is, if indeed such a problem actually exists, the solution may be something different in each case.

Take the national teams, for example. The BBC article suggests that the performance of the England team is indirectly correlated with the number of English players in the Premier League. Introducing a quota on the number of foreign players, would give home-grown players additional opportunities in the first team, thus increasing the quantity of English players playing first-team football and, hopefully, raising their quality too. But even if the performance of the national team is assumed to be positively affected by the number of home-players in the league (a point which I am not entirely convinced is valid), what effect would such a quota have on other national teams? Would they all be improved by such quotas in their respective leagues? Is this a win-all situation? Since such quotas would essentially restrict the number of foreign players in each country, would it not also mean that it would reduce the exposure of these players to different styles of play. Rather than raising the level of every single national team, it could possibly handicap those national teams whose players ply their trade in the home league.

As far as the issue of domestic competition is concerned, one should consider that the quota will indirectly increase the demand for home-grown players while the supply remains more or less constant, thus pushing the price of home-grown players even higher. Who would benefit from a further rise in the price and wages of home-players? None other than the wealthier and more successful clubs. So rather than investing in a football academy, the top clubs will be able to cherry pick the best available players from the lesser clubs further widening the gap between weak and strong clubs within the already segmented leagues. Why have one youth set-up when money can buy you twenty?

The lack of club identity because of the influx of foreign players as well as any criticism levelled on the standard of football being played are arguments which are simply not true in England. Ask any fan of any team and they will always say that it is the crest on the front rather than the name at the back of a shirt which is important, no player is bigger than the club and so on. And it matters not if that player is called George, Jorge or Jürgen, as long as the team are achieving their targets. There will always be fans who support new teams whenever their favourite player is transferred (remember those fans when Beckham was sold to Real Madrid) but thankfully this is not the norm. Dress eleven Martians in a Liverpool shirt, and let them play their way to the league title and I'll be happy as a clam! As for a possible deterioration in the standard of football, I have yet to comprehend how by limiting the pool of players a manager can choose from, the team can become better. The logic of this statement does not hold, since, if true, it means that somebody along the line is not doing their work properly.

It's really not clear what this measure is trying to correct. Football really is a simple game. And it should be left alone. Protectionism measures will, both in the short-run and in the long-run, be counterproductive. If action needs to be taken, find a way of promoting investment in the grass roots and let the best players rise to the top, irrespective of their nationality, colour or any other non-footballing segregation.

A great season ahead?

2008-05-23T10:38:00.006+03:00

A couple of days ago, Man Utd managed to add to their two European Cup (Champions' League) wins with a third trophy, cutting down Liverpool's lead of European Cups to two (still!). This, after securing a 17th league title compared to Liverpool's 18 (yes, I know the last one was in 1990, no need to be reminded!). On the other hand, Chelsea, for all their spending, high wages, fantasy signings etc, not only lost in their first Champions' League final appearance but also ended their season empty-handed. In my mind, all the above points to one thing: next year will be one hell of a league race!

And I'll explain: Without being privy to Chelsea's financial accounts and/or their transfer targets, my gut feeling says that this summer, they will spend. In fact, spend BIG, even by their standards! They've already agreed with Portuguese right back Jose Bosingwa for a cool £16.2m and following both their Champions' League final disappointment and an anticipated possible exodus of players, it would seem that Abramovich may embark on a shopping spree. Even though putting 11 world-class footballers playing together, does not necessarily mean that you have a world-class team, it certainly helps!

Then you have Man Utd with their manager who will be more than poised to equal Liverpool's record number of league titles as well as further reducing the gap in the European Cups leaderboard. Or to put it more eloquently, as Ferguson once said, "... to knock Liverpool off their fucking perch!". That's before mentioning possible additions to their squad, with the acquisition of a top-class striker being muted.

For the exact same reason (i.e. the title of the "most successful football club in the history of English football", no matter how valid or not this title actually is) Liverpool will probably be equally poised not to relinquish their lead that easily. Add to that the pressure on Rafa's back to deliver the title and I believe that the Reds will really go for it next year. Of course, this is easier said than done, with Liverpool also needing improvement to compliment the team's strong spine of players. So far the only confirmed arrival is the free transfer of Borussia Dortmund's Philipp Degen who, like Bosingwa, is also a right-back. A number of names are being branded about but I always prefer to wait before getting hopes and expectations up, until the new signings are actually paraded in Anfield (I know, it's boring, but saves a lot of the what and ifs) ...

Finally Arsenal which, in my opinion, are a conundrum. They are capable of breathtaking football, but are equally prone to lapses of concentration and/or the burden of pressure. With a manager that may also come under pressure (the Gunners' last trophy was the FA Cup back in 2005), Wenger's team will be a match to anybody. It would also depend on the ins and outs of the summer with Mathieu Flamini having already agreed a move to AC Milan.

The summer transfer window is almost upon us with the fight for players' signatures having already started. The transfer window being a prelude to the battle on the football pitches which will commence in August. But until then, there's Euro 2008 to look forward to. But that's another (blog) story...

A new start ...

2008-05-22T17:13:00.016+03:00

Not too sure how this whole blogging business is working but I am positive I will eventually get the hang of it. As for the blog itself, I guess "Research Ability" or even "Researchability" can mean a lot of things and be applied to a whole lot others, so no clear direction has been chosen ... yet! Based on the links on the right, there is football (in the English an not the American sense), Liverpool FC, and the start of the new transfer window, for now. In the future, there's bound to be statistics, finance, academia, betting, and a few other topics covered.

"A new start..." can have different meanings, too! It could be a blog, a new job, even a newborn baby; or it could be all at the same time. Feel free to let me know what you think.