Multiple Selections and Sharpe Ratio

Full or fractional Kelly staking has been in the foremost of betting staking plans. Using the available odds, and our estimate of the "fair" probability of an event happening, we can calculate what proportion of our bank should be staked in each bet. However, what happens if there are more than one, say n, concurrent selections? How much should one stake in total on the n selections, and how much on each of the selections?

What if we looked at the concept of expected reward-to-risk ratio? In finance, this is also known as Sharpe Ratio and it measures the excess return of an investment per unit of risk. Let's denote a bet with a letter i. The estimated probability of the bet winning is p_i while the available odds are o_i.

The bet would represent value if p_i > 1/o_i. Now, if we invest one unit in this bet the expected profit becomes:

E[Profit_i] = (p_i * o_i - 1)

The standard deviation (a measure of the risk) of the bet's profit can be shown to be:

SD[Profit_i] = o_i * Sqrt[ p_i * (1 - p_i) ]

Denoting the expected profit and its standard deviation as E_i and SD_i respectively, the Sharpe ratio for a unit stake in a single bet is given by:

SR_i = E_i / SD_i

When we have more than one selections, i = 1, 2, ..., n, and we invest x_i units in bet i, the total expected profit is given by:

ExpTotProf = x₁ * E₁ + x₂ * E₂ + ... + x_n * E_n = Sum(x_i * E_i)

whereas its standard deviation (because of independence between bets) now becomes:

SDTotProf = Sqrt ( (x₁ * SD₁)² + (x₂ * SD₂)² + ... + (x_n * SD_n)² )

The Sharpe Ratio is given by:

SR = ExpTotProf / SDTotProf

This means that SR is now simply a function of the available odds, the estimated probabilities and the stake in each bet. We can therefore select those stakes (x₁, x₂, ..., x_n) which maximize SR with respect to some constraint e.g Sum(x_i) = 1.

It turns out that the solution to this optimization problem is simply selecting stakes x_i proportional to E_i / SD_i² or more specifically:

x_{i =} (E_i / SD_i²) / Sum[ E_i / SD_i² ]

Although this may sound heavy, it's quite simple in practical terms. Consider 4 bets, available at odds of 2.05, 1.50, 5.00 and 2.50. Let the estimated probabilities for these bets be 60%, 68%, 22% and 45% respectively. If you follow the steps above you should get the following figures:

Note that with the calculated allocation we have achieved a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.256, which is higher than the ratio that we would have achieved had we invested all of our stake on Bet 1 (which had a Sharpe ratio of 0.229).

Change of course....

It's September already and I've realised that I've left this blog to die a slow and painful death. I'm pretty sure that everyone is wondering what happened to the system (and possibly myself) ... or maybe not! Anyway, work usually expands to fill available time, so there wasn't much time left to keep everything up-to-date.

The system resulted in significant losses (even though the yield was "only" -2.1%) as the following table shows:

I'm not going to post the remaining 200-or-so bets since the last update, but should anyone be interested enough, you can visit my thread at Punters' Lounge which also includes a small end-of-season analysis ...

What does the future hold? Well, I've been focusing on different modeling procedures, so I'll hopefully have some information on this in the not too distant future. Until then, take care!

The sorry state of affairs....

Well, it's been yet another hectic month with absolutely no update to the blog, and this has been a result of a couple of things: on the one hand, it's been a result of actually not getting any decent results (the demoralising factor), whereas it was the inevitable outcome of not having enough time for everything that needed my attention (the lack of time factor). Overall, these factors led to the current state of affairs.

Leaving decelopments in my personal life aside, it has been a yo-yo kind of month with the system fluctuating around the break-even point. In a discussion that I had with a fellow poster on Punters Lounge (where I have been updating my results for monitoring purposes), I accepted that I would have stopped posting the system's results had it not been for a promise I made to myself to follow the system through (on paper) until the end of the season.

Based on the above, and for anyone who keeps monitoring this blog (come back, I'll keep it updated, honest guv) the current state of play is as follows:

As you can see, after almost 900 bets the system is just about breaking even, which more than suggests to me that it's not finding betting value. I already have some ideas on what might be going wrong, and it's something that I will try to correct but this update will most probably take place during the summer. Of course, I'll keep updating it and monitoring its performance, since a promise is actually a promise...