One-man team

“It’s a team game” they kept shouting to the Ronaldinho-wannabe when he kept dribbling the ball until he went past each of his 5-a-side opponents twice, in our weekly kick-about. In the end he scored by nutmegging the keeper but that’s not the point, or is it? Well, a couple of weeks later, he couldn’t make it to the game and his team was soundly beaten. Today’s entry is about the huge influence of some specific players on their team.

Take for example France. World champions in 1998 with a baldy guy (no, not Pierluigi Collina) in the middle pulling the strings producing football which was sometimes breathtaking and very often mesmerizing. Then a couple of years later, at Euro 2000, Zidane is at it again, dancing past defenders as if they are not there, and threading the ball through the eye of the needle for the attackers to score.

So what happens when the midfield maestro is either not there or not at his best? Well, a Zidane-less France lose to Senegal in the 2002 World Cup opening match before a goalless draw against Uruguay. Zidane is rushed back, only for France to lose to Denamrk and be eliminated from the World Cup group stage without scoring a single goal. And then when he decided to retire, with France faltering in the qualification for the 2006 World Cup, he was begged to return to action by the manager of France, Raymond Domenech. He returned to lead France to the final (and we all remember what happened then…).

Since his retirement, France have never been the same. The creative vision is missing, the speed of thought is not quick enough and the pattern of play much more predictable. France being eliminated in the group stage at Euro 2008 just highlights the problem and without a clear heir to Zidane’s throne, the future may not be very rosy for Les Bleus.

It is a general misconception that such a loss is only evident at the creative end of the field. Fabio Cannavaro’s absence from Italy’s squad at the Euro proves this wrong. Italy have a tradition of top class defenders and if someone had to put a picture next to the definition of the complete defender one of the few images one could use was that of Cannavaro (Franco Baresi’s would also be there, another Italian!). A cruel injury sidelined the Italian skipper, and he was forced to watch in agony as the makeshift defense was shred to pieces from a rampant Holland in the opening group stage match. The leadership qualities, reading of the game, and impeccable timing that define the 2006 Would Cup best player were conspicuous by their absence.

Taking Italy’s example a step further, they were last night dumped out of the tournament by Spain. In their match, Italy were authoritative in defense but almost clueless in attack. Their idea of a creative attack was to punt long high-balls to their lone striker Toni, in the hope that he would control the ball and either stick it in the net or have someone come from behind (ooer!) for the flick on. So what had changed from the way Italy played in the last three matches (even in the Holland debacle, Italy in fact played really well)? Simple really: Andrea Pirlo. Just watch the quarterfinal again, and compare it with any of Italy’s previous matches. Witness the creative genius of Pirlo quite often in tight situations, and contrast with what Italy were doing last night…

So there you have it. Quite often, teams rely too much on single players, whose contribution is either for all to see (see for example Cristiano Ronaldo at Man Utd), or underrated by many (see Makelele while at Real Madrid). Unfortunately, teams may not plan ahead in order to have contingency plans and are found out as soon as their star performers are missing. Spectators are often hypnotized by individual ability, but it is the collective performance that will win you trophies in the long run. Let’s hope, for Russia’s sake, that Andrei Arshavin will be at his best in a couple of days’ time…

Progress Report (2nd Update)

Well, the European Championships group stage matches are officially over and the last quarterfinal berth was clinched by the talented Russians, both those on the pitch and their (female) fans off it! So the knockout stage line-up is:

• Portugal - Germany
• Croatia - Turkey
• Netherlands - Russia
• Spain - Italy

Four intriguing ties which are evenly balanced, thus keeping the interest sky-high. All four of my pre-tournament picks, have made it to the second stage with at least one out of Spain and Italy through to the semi-final. So far so good!

The first quarterfinal tie will be held tonight. Portugal have rested their first team for the final group stage match against Switzerland so their defeat should not be taken into account. On the other hand, the Germans (along with the Italians) can never be discounted but will probably be viewed as slight underdogs in this match-up. Nevertheless, this promises to be an open match which I am really looking forward to (cue a bore 0-0 draw!).

Croatia have the upper hand against the Turks, even though the latter have come form behind in their last two matches to progress from the group. Bilic's team however are really working well, and should have enough in the tank to dispose of Turkey. Which is good as Croatia were my dark horses for this tournament...

The Netherlands against Russia is a match that will probably puzzle many punters. The Netherlands had a couple of fantastic results against world champions Italy and France, which were however achieved through clinical counter-attacking football. So what may happen against a team which adopts a similar approach is anyone's guess. It may end in a cagey affair with a few openings with each of the teams preferring to wait for their chance, or it may hopefully result in a fast tempo, end-to-end match flowing football match with chances at both ends.

And finally to the Spain-Italy match. My gut feeling is that Italy have played a lot better than their results have suggested. Unlucky against the Oranje when better finishing from the Italians would probably have resulted in a completely different outcome and robbed against Romania when Luca Toni's legitimate goal was wrongly disallowed for offside, the Italians still have something to prove. And do not be surprised if they go all the way again. The loss of Pirlo and Gattuso from the quarterfinal is a significant one, what with Spain's impressive midfield but should they manage to overcome the Iberians, they will be very strong in the semi-final. Of course, it would also depend on their opponents' form which has so far managed to disprove the "underachiever" tag usually associated with Spain. But then again, it is at this stage that Spain usually falters. I really hope they don't!

Betting-wise, I would ideally prefer Croatia and Germany to progress while I have no preference over Italy or Spain. Football-wise however, and I know this is a cliché, may the best team on the pitch qualify!

Progress Report

The European Championships are well under way, with half of the group stage matches finished, and there have been some interesting highlights already. Nice goals, generally exciting matches (Sweden - Greece jumps to mind ... not!), controversial decisions etc, etc. And surely there is more to come. Here's just a quick update on the betting front. The outright picks can be found here.

Tournament favourites Germany have just been beaten by Croatia and although still favourites to qualify from the group, will now have to face in-form Portugal in the quarterfinal stage, should they progress. This reduces their chances of winning the trophy, while at the same time Croatia has proven their track record and should be favourites to reach the semi-final stage. So I guess, at least one out of Croatia and Germany will probably reach the semi-final, hopefully (in a betting sense) both!

Group C is tougher (as expected) to call, and is thrown open by the first set of matches. With four matches to go, my gut-feeling is that, should Italy qualify, they would probably do so in second place thus having to most probably face Spain who were magnificent against Russia. However, Italy have it all to do, with both France and Romania being very hard teams to beat. Safer predictions will probably be feasible tonight after the second set of matches.

Spain have started as if they were playing in the final itself and will probably secure first place tomorrow by beating Sweden. But further progress in the tournament would depend on which Spanish team turns up in the quarterfinals: the one which tore apart the Russian back line, or the one which laboured to a 1-0 win against the USA in their previous match. If it is the former then Spain will probably reach the semi-final stage at least, if not they'l probably crash out ... again!

In other news, "Big Phil" Scolari has been appointed as the next Chelsea boss, taking over once Euro 2008 finishes. Interesting times ahead at the Bridge! More on that later.

It's Euro time!

The summers of the even-numbered years are usually shorter for the football fans across Europe, not due to the latest scientific discovery, I hasten to add. The footballing authorities have arranged for one of the two major (from a European point of view) international tournaments, namely the World Cup and the Euro, to occur in alternate years. Which means that with the Champions' League final still fresh in the minds, attention will be turned to the pitches of Austria and Switzerland where the best European players (the English would probably debate this...) will battle it out to be crowned European Champions. Once that's done, after a couple more weeks with the transfer activity probably picking-up, the club friendlies will start and before you know it the 2008/09 season will kick-off. These summers are really shorter...

I am not going to write a preview of the European Championships as there are a million of write-ups in the infinite Internet space. However, I'll articulate my views betting-wise, just to keep a log of my original thoughts when my picks crash to the ground!

First of all, as the blog's name suggests these bets were supposed to be based on research. It's my ambition, as anyone else whose interests combine the unambiguous order of mathematics, the unpredictable magic of football and the exhilarating feeling of a punter's risk-taking, to create a profitable betting system which would remove part of the uncertainty associated with a football match's outcome. Since this is a long-term objective, and because international tournaments occur (relatively) less frequently, my Euro 2008 picks are based on researching my gut-feelings, coupled with some points picked up from football analysis, either through friends, or on the Net/TV/newspapers etc.

I've decided to back four different teams as an outright winner of the tournament. The way the drawing procedure has been decided, the final will consist of one team from Groups A and B and one from Groups C and D. As a result, I've chosen two teams from the first set of groups and two from the second.

Group A consists of the co-hosts Switzerland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey while participating in Group B are the Germans, the Croats, the Polish and the other co-hosts, Austria. My personal opinion is that the Germans will always there. The fact that they will practically be playing at home, coupled with a decent group draw, will mean that they'll probably make the semi-finals at least. Of course that's also evident from the odds available but at 5.00, I still think it's a good bet. For my second pick, I was contemplating whether to back Portugal, but although their play is very attractive, I am thinking that they may come unstuck in the knock-out phase. Instead I've opted for the Croats who are my dark horses! Talented manager Slaven Bilic has created quite a following and Croatia may prove to be this tournament's Greece! At 13.00 it was definitely worth a shot.

Groups C and D appear more complicated. On the one hand, Group C hosts the World Champions Italy, along with strong teams such as France, the Netherlands and Romania. Group D consists of the European Champions Greece, perennial underachievers Spain, along with Sweden and Russia. Picking two teams from these two groups proved more difficult. It is my belief that any two of the four teams from Group C can progress, although some advantage has to be given to Italy. Yet on any given day, results could go either way, and following the injury to the magnificent Fabio Cannavaro, their task has become even bigger. At 8.00 they provide some value, and you can usually bet that they will grind out the results when needed. Finally, I've decided to back Spain as my fourth team on the basis of two arguments: they look very strong on all areas of the pitch, and they are usually underachieving, meaning that it will bound to be their turn at some point! Odds of 6.00 probably reflect the former rather than the latter consideration!

I wanted to spread the risk/winnings equally so my four single bets are as follows (all teams picked as an Outright Winner from William Hill):

• Stake 5.00 units on Germany at 5.00
• Stake 4.17 units on Spain at 6.00
• Stake 3.13 units on Italy at 8.00
• Stake 1.92 units on Croatia at 13.00

Total stake out is 14.22 units. We'll have to wait for three weeks to find out what the return is (if any!). For now, let the games begin!