Thursday, June 19, 2008

Progress Report (2nd Update)

Well, the European Championships group stage matches are officially over and the last quarterfinal berth was clinched by the talented Russians, both those on the pitch and their (female) fans off it! So the knockout stage line-up is:
  • Portugal - Germany
  • Croatia - Turkey
  • Netherlands - Russia
  • Spain - Italy
Four intriguing ties which are evenly balanced, thus keeping the interest sky-high. All four of my pre-tournament picks, have made it to the second stage with at least one out of Spain and Italy through to the semi-final. So far so good!

The first quarterfinal tie will be held tonight. Portugal have rested their first team for the final group stage match against Switzerland so their defeat should not be taken into account. On the other hand, the Germans (along with the Italians) can never be discounted but will probably be viewed as slight underdogs in this match-up. Nevertheless, this promises to be an open match which I am really looking forward to (cue a bore 0-0 draw!).

Croatia have the upper hand against the Turks, even though the latter have come form behind in their last two matches to progress from the group. Bilic's team however are really working well, and should have enough in the tank to dispose of Turkey. Which is good as Croatia were my dark horses for this tournament...

The Netherlands against Russia is a match that will probably puzzle many punters. The Netherlands had a couple of fantastic results against world champions Italy and France, which were however achieved through clinical counter-attacking football. So what may happen against a team which adopts a similar approach is anyone's guess. It may end in a cagey affair with a few openings with each of the teams preferring to wait for their chance, or it may hopefully result in a fast tempo, end-to-end match flowing football match with chances at both ends.

And finally to the Spain-Italy match. My gut feeling is that Italy have played a lot better than their results have suggested. Unlucky against the Oranje when better finishing from the Italians would probably have resulted in a completely different outcome and robbed against Romania when Luca Toni's legitimate goal was wrongly disallowed for offside, the Italians still have something to prove. And do not be surprised if they go all the way again. The loss of Pirlo and Gattuso from the quarterfinal is a significant one, what with Spain's impressive midfield but should they manage to overcome the Iberians, they will be very strong in the semi-final. Of course, it would also depend on their opponents' form which has so far managed to disprove the "underachiever" tag usually associated with Spain. But then again, it is at this stage that Spain usually falters. I really hope they don't!

Betting-wise, I would ideally prefer Croatia and Germany to progress while I have no preference over Italy or Spain. Football-wise however, and I know this is a cliché, may the best team on the pitch qualify!

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