Saturday, September 27, 2008

System Selections 27-28/9/2008

Better late than never! Last night, I couldn't put the predictions up so you'll have to take my word for it that the system highlighted Southend to win... Anyway, with a couple of hour to go before the first match, here are the weekend's picks...



Once again good luck to anyone following the picks! An update will follow on Monday!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

System Selections 20-21/9/2008 (Results)

After a few very short posts, I have now some more time on my hands. First of all, the previous weekend saw the system registering a small loss with some very mixed results. A couple of real longshots came in (Liverpool drew at home to Stoke and Blackpool beat Birmingham away) but overall quite a few draws ate up a bit of the profit.



The system currently shows a 3.8% yield out of a total of 182 bets so far. The strike rate is at 35.7% while the average strike odds are 2.91.



One could argue that after 182 bets, the system is doing pretty well, but on the one hand the number of bets each weekend (around 25-30 bets) and on the other hand the size of the strike odds mean that additional bets are needed before confidently assessing the performance of the system. Furthermore, a reasonable way of assessing this performance is not imminently evident and a number of indices can be used. But, more on this will come on a later date. In the meantime, if you have any suggestions feel free to add your comments!

Friday, September 19, 2008

System Selections 20-21/9/2008

Very quick update... no time available!


Wednesday, September 17, 2008

System Selections 16-17/9/2008 (Results)

A good midweek set of matches for the system, and it could have been even better had Coventry or Derby held on until the end. Nevertheless, profit is profit.


So far the results seem to confirm what has been seen in the testing period in terms of strike rate, average bet/strike odds and yield. But it's still early days!


Tuesday, September 16, 2008

System Selections 16-17/9/2008

A few Championship picks today. Frankly, I don't feel very confident but who am I to judge the brilliance of statistics!


Good luck to anyone who is actually putting their money where where the system's mouth is!

System Selections 13-14/9/2008 (Results)

A quick update with the system's results: a small loss for the weekend keeps the system on positive ... just!



Another set of matches is coming shortly. The summary table will be updated tomorrow.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

System Selections 13-14/9/2008

Better late than never ... With three hours to go before the Liverpool - Man Utd match, here are this weeks system's selections. Let's see if the system can keep on the right side of the 0.0 line!



Best of luck to anyone actually following these tips!

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

System Selections 5-6/9/2008 (Results)

Even though it's still September, it would seem that some patterns have started to emerge from the system's picks. Lower leagues have not been profitable so far and last weekend was another such day.



Nevertheless, the system is still in the ... blue, which translates to profit. Hopefully, this will continue to be the case.



Until next week then!

Friday, September 5, 2008

System Selections 5-6/9/2008

No Premiership/Championship matches this weekend, but plenty of League One and Two picks. Let's see how the model picks will perform.



Best of luck to anyone follwoing these picks!

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Premiership 2008-2009 Preview

I am sure most of the people reading this blog (funny guy, I know!) are well acquainted with the television show 24. Well, they should make something similar for the last transfer day of the season, the day the "window" closes. I am pretty sure that it will be equally exciting, nerve-racking, pleasantly surprising for some, bitterly disappointing for others. Well, the 1st of September (extended for one day, since the 31st of August was a Sunday) was all that ... and much, much more!

I have delayed this (p)review of the Premiership season, until all (major) transfers were finalized, as it is still possible for some free transfers to take place. It was as if I knew that, as is usually the case, the transfer deadline day more often than not, throws a few surprises. Who would have thought that Man City would overnight become a major, major, player in the Premier League beating Chelsea to the signing of the Brazilian football wizard, Robinho? Or that Liverpool would actually manage to sign a left-sided player after months and months of dallying?

Undoubtedly, the biggest story of the day was Man City changing hands. By taking over the Sky Blues, Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment (ADUG) have turned the tables on one of the most elite groups in world football the Premiership's so-called "Big Four". It will be very interesting to watch, depending whether the Arabs continue their spending in the January transfer window, whether Man City can win the right to qualify for the 2009-2010 Champions League by finishing in the top four and more importantly, should they manage to do so, which one out of Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool drop out. (I know that this can be very controversial, but the odds on anyone else breaking into this group are pretty long.) In the medium term, this move may have created yet another strong English team in the European playing field, something which will no doubt create shock waves in UEFA and its president Michel Platini in particular.

In terms of this year's Premier League, the status quo will most probably remain similar to previous years. Chelsea and Man Utd have started very strongly, with Chelsea's new signings in Deco and Bosingwa already starting to prove their worth. Under Luiz Felipe Scolari, I expect Chelsea to play a more expansive brand of football while remaining quite strong at the back. My personal opinion is that Chelsea will prevail in this year's title race.

Man Utd, on the other hand, managed to close the deal with Dimitar Berbatov who will provide Alex Ferguson with an alternative to Man Utd's rotating strikers type of football (more on this on a coming blog entry). No other transfers in, but with an additional year of maturity, the squad remains strong and will push Chelsea all the way for the Championship.

Liverpool and Arsenal will most probably wrap up the Champions League spots, as they currently seem stronger than teams like Aston Villa, Tottenham, Everton and Portsmouth. But unfortunately, not consistent enough to challenge Man Utd and Chelsea. Maybe in May, I'll be proven wrong, but I have yet to see evidence to the contrary.

The Uefa Cup spots will be split among the usual suspects although Man City will probably gatecrash the party. Tottenham and Portsmouth have not started very well but will soon pick up speed whereas Aston Villa and Everton are always teams capable of inflicting damage. On the other hand, Newcastle seems to be in constant turmoil, something which could damage their chances.

As for relegation, the new boys are prime candidates. The Premier League is a select club that if you manage somehow to gain entry to, the competition to stay in is fierce. And even though both Hull and Stoke have had some great results, the pressure will eventually take its toll. West Brom may benefit from their recent presence in the top division, but they will most probably be there or thereabouts. As for the remaining teams, Bolton and Fulham may struggle and one of them could possibly be playing their football in the Championship in 2009.

Time will tell!

System Selections 30-31/8/2008 (Results)

The weekend picks resulted in a small loss, but the system is still doing well. The nature of the selections though (i.e. odds of around 2.50-3.00 with a strike rate of 35%-40%) means that large swings are possible.



After more than 100 bets, the selections have resulted in a healthy 6.9% yield. Fingers crossed for the future!