The summers of the even-numbered years are usually shorter for the football fans across Europe, not due to the latest scientific discovery, I hasten to add. The footballing authorities have arranged for one of the two major (from a European point of view) international tournaments, namely the World Cup and the Euro, to occur in alternate years. Which means that with the Champions' League final still fresh in the minds, attention will be turned to the pitches of Austria and Switzerland where the best European players (the English would probably debate this...) will battle it out to be crowned European Champions. Once that's done, after a couple more weeks with the transfer activity probably picking-up, the club friendlies will start and before you know it the 2008/09 season will kick-off. These summers are really shorter...
I am not going to write a preview of the European Championships as there are a million of write-ups in the infinite Internet space. However, I'll articulate my views betting-wise, just to keep a log of my original thoughts when my picks crash to the ground!
First of all, as the blog's name suggests these bets were supposed to be based on research. It's my ambition, as anyone else whose interests combine the unambiguous order of mathematics, the unpredictable magic of football and the exhilarating feeling of a punter's risk-taking, to create a profitable betting system which would remove part of the uncertainty associated with a football match's outcome. Since this is a long-term objective, and because international tournaments occur (relatively) less frequently, my Euro 2008 picks are based on researching my gut-feelings, coupled with some points picked up from football analysis, either through friends, or on the Net/TV/newspapers etc.
I've decided to back four different teams as an outright winner of the tournament. The way the drawing procedure has been decided, the final will consist of one team from Groups A and B and one from Groups C and D. As a result, I've chosen two teams from the first set of groups and two from the second.
Group A consists of the co-hosts Switzerland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey while participating in Group B are the Germans, the Croats, the Polish and the other co-hosts, Austria. My personal opinion is that the Germans will always there. The fact that they will practically be playing at home, coupled with a decent group draw, will mean that they'll probably make the semi-finals at least. Of course that's also evident from the odds available but at 5.00, I still think it's a good bet. For my second pick, I was contemplating whether to back Portugal, but although their play is very attractive, I am thinking that they may come unstuck in the knock-out phase. Instead I've opted for the Croats who are my dark horses! Talented manager Slaven Bilic has created quite a following and Croatia may prove to be this tournament's Greece! At 13.00 it was definitely worth a shot.
Groups C and D appear more complicated. On the one hand, Group C hosts the World Champions Italy, along with strong teams such as France, the Netherlands and Romania. Group D consists of the European Champions Greece, perennial underachievers Spain, along with Sweden and Russia. Picking two teams from these two groups proved more difficult. It is my belief that any two of the four teams from Group C can progress, although some advantage has to be given to Italy. Yet on any given day, results could go either way, and following the injury to the magnificent Fabio Cannavaro, their task has become even bigger. At 8.00 they provide some value, and you can usually bet that they will grind out the results when needed. Finally, I've decided to back Spain as my fourth team on the basis of two arguments: they look very strong on all areas of the pitch, and they are usually underachieving, meaning that it will bound to be their turn at some point! Odds of 6.00 probably reflect the former rather than the latter consideration!
I wanted to spread the risk/winnings equally so my four single bets are as follows (all teams picked as an Outright Winner from William Hill):
First of all, as the blog's name suggests these bets were supposed to be based on research. It's my ambition, as anyone else whose interests combine the unambiguous order of mathematics, the unpredictable magic of football and the exhilarating feeling of a punter's risk-taking, to create a profitable betting system which would remove part of the uncertainty associated with a football match's outcome. Since this is a long-term objective, and because international tournaments occur (relatively) less frequently, my Euro 2008 picks are based on researching my gut-feelings, coupled with some points picked up from football analysis, either through friends, or on the Net/TV/newspapers etc.
I've decided to back four different teams as an outright winner of the tournament. The way the drawing procedure has been decided, the final will consist of one team from Groups A and B and one from Groups C and D. As a result, I've chosen two teams from the first set of groups and two from the second.
Group A consists of the co-hosts Switzerland, Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey while participating in Group B are the Germans, the Croats, the Polish and the other co-hosts, Austria. My personal opinion is that the Germans will always there. The fact that they will practically be playing at home, coupled with a decent group draw, will mean that they'll probably make the semi-finals at least. Of course that's also evident from the odds available but at 5.00, I still think it's a good bet. For my second pick, I was contemplating whether to back Portugal, but although their play is very attractive, I am thinking that they may come unstuck in the knock-out phase. Instead I've opted for the Croats who are my dark horses! Talented manager Slaven Bilic has created quite a following and Croatia may prove to be this tournament's Greece! At 13.00 it was definitely worth a shot.
Groups C and D appear more complicated. On the one hand, Group C hosts the World Champions Italy, along with strong teams such as France, the Netherlands and Romania. Group D consists of the European Champions Greece, perennial underachievers Spain, along with Sweden and Russia. Picking two teams from these two groups proved more difficult. It is my belief that any two of the four teams from Group C can progress, although some advantage has to be given to Italy. Yet on any given day, results could go either way, and following the injury to the magnificent Fabio Cannavaro, their task has become even bigger. At 8.00 they provide some value, and you can usually bet that they will grind out the results when needed. Finally, I've decided to back Spain as my fourth team on the basis of two arguments: they look very strong on all areas of the pitch, and they are usually underachieving, meaning that it will bound to be their turn at some point! Odds of 6.00 probably reflect the former rather than the latter consideration!
I wanted to spread the risk/winnings equally so my four single bets are as follows (all teams picked as an Outright Winner from William Hill):
- Stake 5.00 units on Germany at 5.00
- Stake 4.17 units on Spain at 6.00
- Stake 3.13 units on Italy at 8.00
- Stake 1.92 units on Croatia at 13.00
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