System Selections 20-22/2/2009

Better late than never... The Friday evening matches have just started and in fact the first weekend pick is already going wrong, but a pick is a pick! Another twenty to go!

I am trying to work out what the problem with the system is, as it's failed spectacularly during the past couple of months... But until then, I'll keep monitoring it anyway. Fingers crossed.

System Selections 27-28/1/2009 (Results) and 30/1-1/2/2009

Mid-week results were somewhat better but there is still a lot of way to go before the system ends up profitable.

Weekend selections included a pick from Friday night, which however resulted in further loss. It's a good thing therefore that I hadn't posted the selections in time! Anyway, here are the rest of the picks:

System Selections 24/1/2009 (Results) and 27-28/1/2009

Another weekend has come and gone, and the system is registering further losses. In fact, it has returned to an overall loss, wiping out any early-season optisism. Last weekend's results:

Lots of midweek selections which will either dip the system further in trouble or recoup some of the recent losses:

Let's hope for some profit as the system performance is does not make for nice viewing:

System Selections 24/1/2009

Apologies for going missing for more than a week, but things got quite hectic in terms of work and life in general... You'll be relieved to know that you've managed to avoid quite a few losses by the system, though! I'll post a summary update tomorrow, after today's set of selections.

System Selections 9-12/1/2009 (Results) and 13/1/2009

Freezing conditions in the UK meant that a number of matches were postponed. As a result, the ammended list of picks follows:

The rescheduled Oldham - Hartlepool match has already been played, and even though I did not post it on the blog on time, I have included it in the results (even though it ended in a loss for the system!). An update of the system's performance will follow tomorrow, after tonight's pick.

System Selections 9-11/1/2009

Twenty selections for the weekend with quite a few longshot picks...

Good luck to anyone follow these picks! Come on ... the underdogs!

New Year's Progress Report

Mid-week games were all called off in the four divisions that the system selections are based on, so this is break presents itself as a good chance to look at a few performance indicators.

There have been a total of 601 selections, 229 of which were successful, resulting in a strike rate of 38.1%. The average strike odds were 2.74 leading to a nice positive yield of +4.2%. These figures are not too dissimilar with the corresponding figures obtained during the validation period (strike rate: 38.0%, average strike odds: 2.79 and yield: 6.0%), something which lends its weight to the assumption that the system actually will produce profit in the long run! Although these figures are very encouraging, one should take into consideration that based on the number of bets so far, the probability of ending in (any kind of) loss in the long run is still high (24.4%). This is a result of the (relatively) long odds that the system selections are placed on, and the subsequent less-than-2-in-5 strike rate. So, I would still urge caution to all those who think that this is the Holy Grail of football betting!

It is furthermore interesting to break the figures down by type of bet. As the tables below show, the system has been hindered by the Home selections which recorded a loss of 87.8 points (or -2.9% yield).

At the same time, Away picks performed admirably well, registering a yield of +8.6% and pulling the system well in profit. This was also helped by a surprisingly high (but probably unsustainable) level of yield from the relatively fewer Draw selections. As anyone who is involved in 1X2 prediction will tell you, prediction of Draws is notoriously difficult in football, and the high positive yield (even after just 51 bets) feels very rewarding especially given the fact that the model tackles the draw probability in a unique way.

It is also of interest to break down the system selections by division. Doing this has been an eye-opener for me: the system has been let down by League One and Two selections, which recorded -3.4% and -5.4% yields respectively, whereas Championship picks have registered only a marginal profit (+1.4% yield).

However, it is obvious that the overwhelming majority of the profit recorded was due to the excellent performance of the system over the Premiership selections. A profit of 356.8 units which translates to an impressive 27.0% yield cannot be easily discarded. These figures, it could be argued, that they are counter-intuitive as one would expect that the higher echelons of the football league structure are better priced in terms of odds rather than the lower leagues and therefore not as profitable. Only time will tell if this result has been a random event or a betting opportunity worth exploiting!

P.S. Watch the system crash in the next couple of weeks, having been given the kiss of death!

System Selections 28-30/12/2008 (Results) and 3/1/2009 (Results)

First of all, let me wish everyone a Happy New Year! Unfortunately, things got a bit busy over the festive period, so I have only just managed to update the blog. This meant that 3 bets over the last weekend were missed but, maybe it was for the better, as they registered small losses. The previous set of picks did not alter the system results in any significant way.

Here are the missed picks (for completeness sake):

Taking into account just over 600 bets, the current state of the system is as follows:

Apart from eating and drinking lots over the Christmas period, I got the chance to research a bit further the system picks. I'll try to put some results up in the next few days. Just a sneak preview, for those backing the picks with real money: the Premiership selections have registered a 27% yield!

System Selections 26/12/2008 (Results) and 28-30/12/2008

A good Boxing Day for the system with healthy profits being registered and hopfully more of the same for the next few days...

A system performance update will be posted as soon as this batch of selections is settled.. Until then good luck!

System Selections 26/12/2008

Merry Christmas to everyone! And of course, Boxing Day is a very big day on the English fooball calendar, so here are the system's picks for today:

Good luck to anyone following these picks!

System Selections 19-22/12/2008 (Results)

A profitable weekend for the system which is most welcome right before Christmas. The Premier League picks seem to be performing pretty well, while League One and Two are currently running on losses. Hopefully, all leagues will return a profit by May!

Next system update will probably be on the 26th so I'd like to wish Merry Christmas to everybody visiting this blog!

System Selections 12-14/12/2008 (Results) and 19-22/12/2008

Another week goes by, and the results have note been updated... At least I've managed to put this week's up just in time... Note that there was one abandoned match in last week's batch which is ammended in the results this week.

Fingers crossed for a positive weekend!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008 (Results), 8-10/12/2008 (Results) and 12-14/12/2008

It's been quite a few days since the blog has last been updated but available time was very scarce... As a result, last weeks results have not been posted where the mid-week selections were missed all together. Anyway, last week saw a couple of matches being postponed and the list of picks has been ammended accordingly:

The mid-week (8-10/12/2008) picks and results (can be verified in my thread at Punters Lounge) are:

whereas this weekend's picks are:

With 26 pending bets, the system performance statistics:

Apologies for anyone that has been following the system and did not have the picks on time... Judging by the system's performance in mid-week, I probably have saved you a bit of dosh!

System Selections 6-8/12/2008

A full coupon ahead and the system has picked 29 bets. Let's see if the weekend is a profitable one!

System Selections 29/11-1/12/2008 (Results)

A great weekend for the system's selections which registered healthy profit, raising the yield past the 6% mark. However, it has been a rollercoaster ride so things can easily turn sour!

There are a couple of matches for League Two tonight. Look out for further system selections!

System Selections 25/11/2008 (Results) and 29/11-1/12/2008

It's another one of those All Inclusive posts: it has an update with the midweek results, the weekend's picks and another summary table to monitor performance. So without further ado:

Some good midweek results increasing the profit. Hopefully it will continue over the weekend:

Finally, here are the so far results with 16 pending bets:

System Selections 25/11/2008

The great thing about English football is that it's almost every day... So here are tonight's set of picks according to the system.

Hoping for a profitable night of (virtual) betting!

System Selections 21-24/11/2008 (Results)

A small loss for the system but nothing too serious.

There are additional matches this evening so the system's picks will be posted later today.

System Selections 21-24/11/2008

It was a pretty busy week, so the analysis promised in my previous post did not materialise... Hopefully it can be posted some time next week, thus taking into account this weekend's selections:

System Selections 15-16/11/2008 (Results)

Back into positive territory for the system, carrying forward the recent good form. Long may it continue!

There are midweek international matches which will hopefully give me the chance of updating the thread with a breakdown of these figures, by type of bet (H/D/A) as well as by competition (Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two). Some interesting figures will be coming up...