System Selections 27-28/1/2009 (Results) and 30/1-1/2/2009

Mid-week results were somewhat better but there is still a lot of way to go before the system ends up profitable.

Weekend selections included a pick from Friday night, which however resulted in further loss. It's a good thing therefore that I hadn't posted the selections in time! Anyway, here are the rest of the picks:

System Selections 24/1/2009 (Results) and 27-28/1/2009

Another weekend has come and gone, and the system is registering further losses. In fact, it has returned to an overall loss, wiping out any early-season optisism. Last weekend's results:

Lots of midweek selections which will either dip the system further in trouble or recoup some of the recent losses:

Let's hope for some profit as the system performance is does not make for nice viewing:

System Selections 24/1/2009

Apologies for going missing for more than a week, but things got quite hectic in terms of work and life in general... You'll be relieved to know that you've managed to avoid quite a few losses by the system, though! I'll post a summary update tomorrow, after today's set of selections.

System Selections 13/1/2009 (Results)

Yeovil could not beat Scunthorpe unfortunately so it's another small loss for the system. Not to worry though as it's still in positive figures ... for now!

Until the next update, take care!

System Selections 9-12/1/2009 (Results) and 13/1/2009

Freezing conditions in the UK meant that a number of matches were postponed. As a result, the ammended list of picks follows:

The rescheduled Oldham - Hartlepool match has already been played, and even though I did not post it on the blog on time, I have included it in the results (even though it ended in a loss for the system!). An update of the system's performance will follow tomorrow, after tonight's pick.

System Selections 9-11/1/2009

Twenty selections for the weekend with quite a few longshot picks...

Good luck to anyone follow these picks! Come on ... the underdogs!

New Year's Progress Report

Mid-week games were all called off in the four divisions that the system selections are based on, so this is break presents itself as a good chance to look at a few performance indicators.

There have been a total of 601 selections, 229 of which were successful, resulting in a strike rate of 38.1%. The average strike odds were 2.74 leading to a nice positive yield of +4.2%. These figures are not too dissimilar with the corresponding figures obtained during the validation period (strike rate: 38.0%, average strike odds: 2.79 and yield: 6.0%), something which lends its weight to the assumption that the system actually will produce profit in the long run! Although these figures are very encouraging, one should take into consideration that based on the number of bets so far, the probability of ending in (any kind of) loss in the long run is still high (24.4%). This is a result of the (relatively) long odds that the system selections are placed on, and the subsequent less-than-2-in-5 strike rate. So, I would still urge caution to all those who think that this is the Holy Grail of football betting!

It is furthermore interesting to break the figures down by type of bet. As the tables below show, the system has been hindered by the Home selections which recorded a loss of 87.8 points (or -2.9% yield).

At the same time, Away picks performed admirably well, registering a yield of +8.6% and pulling the system well in profit. This was also helped by a surprisingly high (but probably unsustainable) level of yield from the relatively fewer Draw selections. As anyone who is involved in 1X2 prediction will tell you, prediction of Draws is notoriously difficult in football, and the high positive yield (even after just 51 bets) feels very rewarding especially given the fact that the model tackles the draw probability in a unique way.

It is also of interest to break down the system selections by division. Doing this has been an eye-opener for me: the system has been let down by League One and Two selections, which recorded -3.4% and -5.4% yields respectively, whereas Championship picks have registered only a marginal profit (+1.4% yield).

However, it is obvious that the overwhelming majority of the profit recorded was due to the excellent performance of the system over the Premiership selections. A profit of 356.8 units which translates to an impressive 27.0% yield cannot be easily discarded. These figures, it could be argued, that they are counter-intuitive as one would expect that the higher echelons of the football league structure are better priced in terms of odds rather than the lower leagues and therefore not as profitable. Only time will tell if this result has been a random event or a betting opportunity worth exploiting!

P.S. Watch the system crash in the next couple of weeks, having been given the kiss of death!

System Selections 28-30/12/2008 (Results) and 3/1/2009 (Results)

First of all, let me wish everyone a Happy New Year! Unfortunately, things got a bit busy over the festive period, so I have only just managed to update the blog. This meant that 3 bets over the last weekend were missed but, maybe it was for the better, as they registered small losses. The previous set of picks did not alter the system results in any significant way.

Here are the missed picks (for completeness sake):

Taking into account just over 600 bets, the current state of the system is as follows:

Apart from eating and drinking lots over the Christmas period, I got the chance to research a bit further the system picks. I'll try to put some results up in the next few days. Just a sneak preview, for those backing the picks with real money: the Premiership selections have registered a 27% yield!