New Year's Progress Report

Mid-week games were all called off in the four divisions that the system selections are based on, so this is break presents itself as a good chance to look at a few performance indicators.

There have been a total of 601 selections, 229 of which were successful, resulting in a strike rate of 38.1%. The average strike odds were 2.74 leading to a nice positive yield of +4.2%. These figures are not too dissimilar with the corresponding figures obtained during the validation period (strike rate: 38.0%, average strike odds: 2.79 and yield: 6.0%), something which lends its weight to the assumption that the system actually will produce profit in the long run! Although these figures are very encouraging, one should take into consideration that based on the number of bets so far, the probability of ending in (any kind of) loss in the long run is still high (24.4%). This is a result of the (relatively) long odds that the system selections are placed on, and the subsequent less-than-2-in-5 strike rate. So, I would still urge caution to all those who think that this is the Holy Grail of football betting!

It is furthermore interesting to break the figures down by type of bet. As the tables below show, the system has been hindered by the Home selections which recorded a loss of 87.8 points (or -2.9% yield).

At the same time, Away picks performed admirably well, registering a yield of +8.6% and pulling the system well in profit. This was also helped by a surprisingly high (but probably unsustainable) level of yield from the relatively fewer Draw selections. As anyone who is involved in 1X2 prediction will tell you, prediction of Draws is notoriously difficult in football, and the high positive yield (even after just 51 bets) feels very rewarding especially given the fact that the model tackles the draw probability in a unique way.

It is also of interest to break down the system selections by division. Doing this has been an eye-opener for me: the system has been let down by League One and Two selections, which recorded -3.4% and -5.4% yields respectively, whereas Championship picks have registered only a marginal profit (+1.4% yield).

However, it is obvious that the overwhelming majority of the profit recorded was due to the excellent performance of the system over the Premiership selections. A profit of 356.8 units which translates to an impressive 27.0% yield cannot be easily discarded. These figures, it could be argued, that they are counter-intuitive as one would expect that the higher echelons of the football league structure are better priced in terms of odds rather than the lower leagues and therefore not as profitable. Only time will tell if this result has been a random event or a betting opportunity worth exploiting!

P.S. Watch the system crash in the next couple of weeks, having been given the kiss of death!